Africa Economics Update UK-Africa trade ties will remain limited UK Prime Minister Theresa May is using a visit to Africa to promote economic ties with the region, but we doubt that trade links between Britain and Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen over the coming... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Revising down our rand forecasts The rand’s recent falls have prompted us to downgrade our end of year forecasts. We now think that the currency will slip from 14.4/$ to 15/$ by the end of 2018 and to 15.5/$ by the end of 2019. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Activity data suggest weak growth in Q2 GDP figures due next week will probably show that growth in Nigeria remained weak in Q2. We think that growth was probably about 2% y/y, essentially in line with the previous two quarters. 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy on the edge of recession in Q2 Q2 activity data were an improvement on Q1, when the economy contracted sharply. But a weak performance from key sectors has still dealt a blow to hopes that President Ramaphosa would boost growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand: Why always me? The rand’s status as a liquid, easily traded currency makes it particularly vulnerable to shifts in EM sentiment. But these seldom last, and the SARB will not – as some expect – respond by hiking... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Turkey parallels The falling rand has, yet again, highlighted the currency’s vulnerability to EM risk sentiment. From an economic perspective, however, the country’s situation is very different from Turkey’s building... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt offer suggests a deal is likely A new offer to restructure Mozambique’s debt hints at the shape that an eventual deal may take. An agreement would provide a boost to confidence in an economy that is already starting to recover. 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Land reform: Market moves exceed economic risk President Ramaphosa’s call for constitutional change has stoked investor fears of economically-painful land reform. We think that this is overdone, but a poorly-managed process will boost market... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s central bank now likely to pause easing cycle The statement that accompanied today’s decision by the Central Bank of Kenya to lower interest rates by 50bp suggested that the easing cycle has further to run. However, with inflation set to rise in... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Pre-election inflation fears misplaced Widespread fears that Nigeria’s upcoming election will spur inflation are not supported by the available evidence. We think that price pressures will continue to ease over the rest of this year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN muddies the water Nigeria’s MPC left its key rate on hold at 14.00%, and hawkish language has led us to remove the rate cuts that we’d previously pencilled in for Q4. Confusingly, the governor also announced unorthodox... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: SARB talks tough, but rate hikes still unlikely South African policymakers adopted even more hawkish language at today’s MPC meeting, but we still doubt that they will hike rates in 2019. The risks to our non-consensus view are, admittedly, growing... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Fragilities easing, but not out of the woods yet Kenya’s wide current account deficit will narrow in 2019 as oil prices decline and food imports fall. But the situation will remain fragile; we think that economic growth will be softer than most... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales suggest improvement in Q2 Today’s unexpectedly strong retail sales figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy improved in the middle of Q2. The contraction seems to have bottomed out in April. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Contraction eased in middle of Q2 Surprisingly positive figures from the mining and manufacturing sectors suggest that South Africa’s economy improved a bit last quarter. Even so, GDP probably continued to fall. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: The Ramaphosa slump After contracting in Q1, the latest figures suggest that South Africa’s economy remained very weak in Q2. As a result, we’ve cut our 2018 GDP estimate from 2.0% y/y to a below-consensus 1.3%. 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
