Africa Economics Update Ghana: Balance sheet weaknesses ebbing After a difficult period, recent data show that Ghana’s balance sheet problems are now behind us. While problems in the banking sector have emerged, policymakers are taking the right steps to tackle... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Springtime in Addis Ababa? Reforms announced by Ethiopia’s government could upend the country’s political and economic model. This may eventually boost growth, but a delicate period of liberalisation will increase the risk of... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ‘Ramaphoria’ stalls in Q1 South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q1, underlining the scale of the task facing President Ramaphosa. Growth will pick up later this year, but will remain weak by historical standards. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Only a mild rebound in 2018 Despite higher oil prices, Angola’s economy will grow by just 1.5% this year, less than consensus expectations. Conditions will remain weak in 2019, though reforms could provide a boost further out. 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update E. African inflation: Still on track for rate cuts in 2018 Inflation in Kenya and Uganda will pick up over the coming months. The shift will be mostly due to base effects, and with inflation within target, policymakers in both countries will cut rates by 50bp... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: A weak month for local markets Most African currencies weakened against the US dollar this month, but avoided the sharp falls seen elsewhere in the EM world. Zambian markets, however, struggled due to fears of hidden debts. 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Pro-business reform in Africa: Angola stands out Hopes that President Cyril Ramaphosa will reform South Africa’s economy have grabbed the headlines. But reforms are also underway elsewhere; recent pro-business moves in Angola show the most potential... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Hawkish tone, but rates on hold for now South African policymakers, who left their key rate at 6.50% today, struck a hawkish tone. Though inflation will pick up this year, a hike is unlikely. We think the next move will be a small cut in... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers hold off, will cut later this year A surprisingly hawkish MPC statement suggest that Nigerian policymakers (who held their key rate at 14.00% today) will keep rates on hold for most of this year. But they will still probably cut rates... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Agriculture in Africa: An underappreciated opportunity Most African economies remain heavily-dependent on the agricultural sector. Indeed, weather-related disruptions often play a key role in determining swings in headline economic growth. The sector is... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Long-delayed budget tells us little The 2018 budget finally passed by Nigerian legislators yesterday will have little effect on fiscal policy. Expenditure – particularly on capital projects – will fall far below the government’s... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Growth stalls in Q1, will pick up thereafter Today’s retail figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered at the start of 2018, with GDP actually contracting in Q1. We still think that growth will return Q2 and remain strong... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbled in Q1 Today’s activity data suggest that growth faltered in Q1. Recent surveys, however, point to improving conditions, and we maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 2.0% over 2018 as a whole. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: A closer look at public debt worries We’ve long argued that Zambia’s debt position is very fragile. Adverse commodity price moves, for instance, could quickly push it into debt distress. If recent allegations that officials have... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Weaker inflation points to rate cut Today’s inflation figures support our view that policymakers will cut their key rate in July. Meanwhile, the rebate surrounding Kenya’s lending rate cap suggests that the controversial law will be... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices: Africa’s winners and losers Commodities make up a large part of Africa’s exports but the degree of dependence and product diversification varies across the region. While the value of net exports of energy producers, including... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
