Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to grim result in Q1 March retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2.0% in Q1. This strengthens our belief that the next rate move will be a cut. 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: More railway problems, commercial debt worries The latest changes to Kenya’s railway plan have focused attention on the Chinese-funded SGR project. But the country’s real debt problems surround its growing eurobond sales, which will increase with... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Sliding towards a debt crisis Zambia’s public debt position has long been untenable, but the situation is now escalating. The country faces the choice between fiscal tightening (possibly as part of an IMF debt deal) or a more... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy ending Q1 on less gloomy note Activity figures for March were stronger than those for February, but it still looks almost certain that South Africa’s economy contracted in Q1. Conditions seem to have improved in April, and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy faltered in early 2019 Retail sales figures for February added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in the first months of the year. Growth will probably pick up later this year, but it will remain weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele’s legacy As CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term draws to a close, we’ve taken a look at how his controversial decisions worsened Nigeria’s recent economic crisis. Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s views on... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to weak Q1 The latest activity figures add to the evidence that growth in South Africa softened at the start of 2019. Conditions will probably pick up later in the year, but growth will remain tepid. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed year for agricultural production Rebounds in agricultural production will help to support economic accelerations this year in Kenya and South Africa. Elsewhere in Southern & Eastern Africa, however, the sector will drag on growth –... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fiscal fragilities building Nigeria’s fiscal position is much weaker than widely believed. Government plans to focus on foreign borrowing will add to currency risk. And evidence suggests that the central bank is helping to... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s inflation concerns fading The South African Reserve Bank’s (relatively) dovish post-meeting communications support our view that the next move in interest rates will be down (probably in early 2020). The markets have moved... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rate cut (another) hit to CBN credibility Today’s rate cut was another signal that Nigerian policymakers are prioritising monetary stimulus over their own inflation target. We doubt that this cut – which will probably be the first in a cycle... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth faltered in early 2019 Retail sales growth picked up in January, but activity data across the economy as a whole were weak at the start of 2019. Growth will probably remain subdued over Q1, but then strengthen later in the... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s cedi: Worst now behind us The dramatic weakening of Ghana’s cedi has been driven by a decline in investor sentiment, and does not reflect a deterioration in underlying macro fundamentals. Given strong growth and supportive... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy has weak start to 2019 Activity data released today showed that South Africa’s economy faltered in January, but we think that conditions will improve later this year. Weak growth and low inflation will add to pressure for a... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Growth will slow in 2019 The first figures from Q1 support our view that economic growth in Nigeria will be slower than most expect this year. Rather than accelerating, weakness in the oil sector, tight fiscal policy, and... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: SARB nationalisation would have little effect Talk of “nationalising” the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) put pressure on the rand last week. The move – which would bring the Bank in line with global norms – would have no effect on the bank’s... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
