Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update FOCAC: Africa-China relations in a fracturing world Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region... 4th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: a bumpy recovery ahead The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth seen in Q2 will probably be followed by a renewed slowdown this quarter. But we think the backdrop of rising oil production, falling inflation and possible interest... 28th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Unpacking South Africa’s structural growth problem There’s growing optimism that South Africa’s economy is set for a period of faster growth under the Government of National Unity (GNU). And we think a combination of lower interest rates and higher... 22nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Slowing underlying inflation suggests SARB can cut The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) new “supercore” inflation measure adds yet another piece of evidence that price pressures are being brought under control. We think the SARB should now be... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa experiencing a two speed recovery South African economy looks to have recorded a pick-up in growth in Q2, but the recovery is operating at two speeds with retail sales and manufacturing on the up, while the mining sector remains a... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SSA protests will worsen public finance strains Protests that originated in Kenya have spread to neighbouring Uganda and as far afield as Nigeria. The common theme of a weak economic backdrop, endemic corruption and fiscal fears means the region is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Weak demand holding back S. Africa’s economy The fading drag from load-shedding was widely expected to allow a recovery in South Africa’s economy this year, but this hasn’t materialised. We think that weak demand is to blame, itself a symptom of... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB opens the door to rate cuts The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% was of little surprise but there was increased optimism on the MPC that inflation is moving towards the 4.5% mid... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: modest growth pick-up on the cards The policy shift underway in Nigeria has kept economic growth subdued – something that continued in Q2 according to the latest PMI and confidence data. Tight monetary policy will still remain a... 18th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa’s economic struggles continue South Africa is struggling to emerge from its recent trend of sluggish economic activity, with stronger outturns in the retail sector being offset by weakness in industry. Nonetheless, we think... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: sovereign default risks on the rise again Recent protests in Kenya have dealt a heavy blow to President Ruto’s fiscal consolidation plans and, with the president dismissing the cabinet yesterday as he tries to cling on to power, it looks... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya protests could reignite sovereign default fears The escalating protests in Kenya will add to the near-term headwinds facing economic activity as well as raise further question marks over the government’s ability to push through fiscal consolidation... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa’s economy slowly turning the corner South Africa’s new government of national unity (GNU) will welcome signs that the economy showed signs of perking up at the start of Q2. We think this burst of momentum has further to run, although... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
