Africa Economics Focus South Africa: A closer look at the public debt problem South Africa’s public debt burden is not too high, but the direction of travel is very worrying. While the structure of the country’s debts and its deep local capital markets make an acute crisis... 21st November 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: What is to be done? Hopes that President Cyril Ramaphosa can quickly revive South Africa’s economy are fading. The real problems are all structural, so even if he does make bold policy changes – far from guaranteed... 7th August 2019 · 20 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: Election unlikely to spur reforms President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC is all-but certain to win this week’s election, but we’re sceptical that this will provide impetus to his sluggish reform drive. The ruling party will, after all... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Ethiopia’s reforms: Push forward or risk falling back PM Abiy Ahmed’s political and economic reforms have drawn attention to Ethiopia’s huge potential. But the process remains fragile and could easily be reversed. Developing a private sector-led... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: Election offers chance for big policy shift On Saturday, Nigerian voters will face a choice between two radically different policy options. A win for opposition leader Atiku Abubakar would boost local markets, but he would probably struggle to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Taking the Long View: Africa in 2040 African economies will probably remain among the fastest-growing in the world over the coming decades. But slow productivity growth will prevent convergence with high income countries. Indeed, we... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus China & Africa: Setting the record straight Perceptions of the economic ties between China and Africa are often based on inaccurate assumptions. In this Focus we debunk three key myths. The China-Africa relationship is not as state-driven, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa: Debt positions fragile in face of economic shocks Africa’s public debt problems are currently concentrated in Mozambique, Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, & Zambia. Elsewhere, however, it would only take a small shock to prompt a crisis (Kenya & South Africa... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Why Africa won’t be the next EM powerhouse African economies entered a cyclical upturn last year, and we think that they will outperform consensus expectations in 2018 and 2019. But their long-term outlook is less rosy than that of many... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Making sense of Africa’s statistical muddle Sceptics are right to question the reliability of official economic statistics in Africa, but the problems unevenly distributed across the region. For Africa’s larger economies, we think that the... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus S. Africa: Growth to accelerate, but recovery won’t last After a grim 2016, growth in South Africa will recover more quickly than most expect, reaching 2.0% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. But this would still be a woeful outcome for a country at South Africa’s... 3rd March 2017 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Focus African Debt: Troubles contained in a few countries Mozambique’s worsening debt scandal has prompted fears of a string of debt crises across Africa. We believe, however, that the worst debt problems will be centred in Angola. Ghana and Zambia also look... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa: Solid growth, no economic transformation Hopes that African economies will repeat the economic miracles seen in Asia are, for the most part, misplaced. Rapid population growth will deliver reasonable rates of headline GDP growth, but... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The Myth of the “African Middle Class” Oft-repeated claims that an African “middle class” will propel economic growth in the region confuse cause and effect. Most estimates of the size of the region’s middle class rely on poorly drawn... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa will struggle to capitalise on youthful demographics Sub-Saharan Africa’s youthful demographic profile is often cited as a potential engine of economic development, but we believe that this argument significantly overstates the economic benefits of... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: What to expect after the election Saturday’s election will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the result. Beyond this, another term for incumbent... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
