Autumn Budget aftermath

Key analysis on the macro impact of the Chancellor's tax, borrowing and spending plans

UK 2024 Budget Preview

Exclusive preview of Rachel Reeves’ UK 2024 Autumn statement

How will Rachel Reeves' debut Budget balance tax, spending, and borrowing to drive growth while maintaining market confidence? Read our in-depth report for insights on what to expect.

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UK Economics Weekly

The knowns and unknowns of the new fiscal rule

The growing likelihood that the PSNFL measure of debt will form one of the Chancellor's fiscal rules in next Wednesday's Budget theoretically means she could increase borrowing by £73bn (2.3% of GDP)...

25th October 2024 4 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Autumn Budget 2024 Preview

In her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, faces the unenviable task of trying to achieve three objectives. First, being able to say there will be “no return to...

16th October 2024 26 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Does a £40bn “funding gap” mean £40bn of tax rises?

The Chancellor’s £40bn “funding gap” doesn’t mean that the Budget on 30th October will involve £40bn of tax rises. Some of this “funding gap” will probably be paid for with higher borrowing and some...

18th October 2024 6 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The implications of more public investment

A big increase in public investment in the Budget on 30th October would push up demand before any rise in supply is felt. That could mean over the next year or two inflation is a bit higher than...

27th September 2024 6 mins read

UK Economics Focus

The post-election UK economic landscape

The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain...

12th September 2024 14 mins read

UK Economics Update

How will Reeves fill the £22bn spending shortfall?

Our best judgement is that in order to fund the increase in spending of £22bn outlined by the Chancellor today, Reeves will raise an additional £10bn a year (0.3% of GDP) via higher taxes and increase...

29th July 2024 6 mins read

UK Economics Focus

The economic priorities for the new government

It is not inevitable that the economic malaise of the past 20-30 years will continue over the next decade. Some of the cyclical forces that have lowered the UK’s economic growth rate will fade and new...

10th July 2024 15 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy?

The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and...

12th June 2024 16 mins read

UK Economics Update

Which taxes could rise after the election?

Whoever wins the general election on 4th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space...

5th June 2024 5 mins read

Fiscal Headroom Monitor

See how market interest rate expectations influence the fiscal policy space available to Rachel Reeves

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