The bond market sell-off Key analysis of 2023's historic rout and the outlook for yields in higher rate world Capital Daily Is the US Treasury yield curve about to “disinvert”? We expect the US Treasury 10-year/2-year yield spread to turn positive before long, and subsequently rise further over the next year or so. 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read Capital Daily More signs that UST yields may reverse course soon Long-term Treasury yields have risen to new cyclical highs despite a generally weak global economic backdrop. Short-term “technical” indicators also suggest to us the surge in yields may have run its... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read Global Markets Update Raising our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield We still expect the 10-year Treasury yield to fall in the coming quarters. But we’ve revised up our projections for that yield from now to end of 2025, and now think it will reach its cyclical low in... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read Global Markets Update How demand and supply affect Treasury term premia Estimates suggest that the term premium of US 10-year Treasuries has bounced back to positive territory. We think that this can be at least partly explained by demand and supply factors. And we... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read US Economics Weekly Rising long rates a fiscal rather than monetary problem The conventional wisdom is that the recent surge in Treasury yields is a reaction to the Fed’s “higher for longer” message. But that surge has been focused solely on the long end of the curve... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read Canada Economics Weekly Higher bond yields mean more pain for housing The further rise in home listings in September and likelihood that mortgage rates will increase amid the global bond market sell-off suggests that house prices will soon fall again. While employment... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read UK Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off already hurting the economy The rapid rise in the 30-year gilt yield has lifted it to a 20-year high but, while striking, so far the speed of the increase is slower than in the run-up to the liability-driven investment crisis... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read Europe Economics Weekly What the bond market sell-off means for the euro-zone The bond market sell-off, and associated tightening of financial conditions, reinforces our view that the ECB has finished hiking. The market moves have been nowhere near big enough to prompt the ECB... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read Capital Daily Are surging bond yields responsible for surging bond yields? A laundry list of explanations has been provided for the surge in the term premia of Treasuries since mid-year, which has accounted for more than ~100bp rise in the 10-year yield based on the ACM... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read Where will interest rates settle? Explore our major new work on equilibrium real rates Start reading The Weekly Briefing podcast on the bond market rout:
Capital Daily Is the US Treasury yield curve about to “disinvert”? We expect the US Treasury 10-year/2-year yield spread to turn positive before long, and subsequently rise further over the next year or so. 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily More signs that UST yields may reverse course soon Long-term Treasury yields have risen to new cyclical highs despite a generally weak global economic backdrop. Short-term “technical” indicators also suggest to us the surge in yields may have run its... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Raising our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield We still expect the 10-year Treasury yield to fall in the coming quarters. But we’ve revised up our projections for that yield from now to end of 2025, and now think it will reach its cyclical low in... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update How demand and supply affect Treasury term premia Estimates suggest that the term premium of US 10-year Treasuries has bounced back to positive territory. We think that this can be at least partly explained by demand and supply factors. And we... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rising long rates a fiscal rather than monetary problem The conventional wisdom is that the recent surge in Treasury yields is a reaction to the Fed’s “higher for longer” message. But that surge has been focused solely on the long end of the curve... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher bond yields mean more pain for housing The further rise in home listings in September and likelihood that mortgage rates will increase amid the global bond market sell-off suggests that house prices will soon fall again. While employment... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off already hurting the economy The rapid rise in the 30-year gilt yield has lifted it to a 20-year high but, while striking, so far the speed of the increase is slower than in the run-up to the liability-driven investment crisis... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What the bond market sell-off means for the euro-zone The bond market sell-off, and associated tightening of financial conditions, reinforces our view that the ECB has finished hiking. The market moves have been nowhere near big enough to prompt the ECB... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Are surging bond yields responsible for surging bond yields? A laundry list of explanations has been provided for the surge in the term premia of Treasuries since mid-year, which has accounted for more than ~100bp rise in the 10-year yield based on the ACM... 5th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
