Japan Economics Update Yield Curve Control is effectively over The Bank of Japan announced today that it will allow 10-year yields to rise above the 0.5% ceiling – which it says it is retaining – to a new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0%. With signs mounting of a... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Core inflation still far lower than elsewhere Comparing the proper inflation gauges reveals that core inflation in Japan remains far lower than elsewhere. And with most of the recent pick-up in core inflation reflecting soaring imports costs, the... 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weak yen won’t provide much boost to economy Last year’s sharp weakening of the yen hasn’t boosted goods exports, not least because most exports are invoiced in foreign currency and exporters haven’t slashed prices. Instead, it has lifted... 13th July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Intervention time: what next for the yen and the renminbi? China has stepped up its support of the renminbi and Japan appears to be edging closer to direct intervention to prop up the yen. While pressure from higher US interest rates may well continue in the... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fertiliser cost surge to unwind Processed food inflation hit a fresh high in May but the recent moderation in food import prices as well as likely declines in domestic fertiliser prices suggest it will soon start to moderate. 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Friend-shoring picking up pace beneath the surface At first glance, there’s little sign of friend-shoring among Japanese firms as they have directed a rising share of their outward foreign direct investment at China. However, this largely reflects... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Female participation rate hasn’t peaked yet The female participation rate has surged over the past decade but more favourable attitudes among women towards paid employment suggest that it will keep rising for a while yet. Asia Drop-In (22 nd... 19th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain ultra-loose The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy settings and assessment of the economy unchanged today. As inflation is unlikely to be sustained at or above target for the foreseeable future, we’re still... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ sell its ETF holdings at a discount? While selling its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings at book value to the government wouldn’t impair the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet, we don’t think it would provide the boost to fiscal revenue... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Why are job vacancies so low in Japan? Job vacancies haven’t surged in Japan because the participation rate has risen since the start of the pandemic and there hasn’t been a “Great Resignation” amongst Japanese workers. With the labour... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Has corporate Japan cleaned up its act? Many commentators have pinned the recent outperformance of Japan’s stock market on the stronger focus by Japanese firms to maximise shareholder value. But while those efforts showed some success in... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Services inflation set to fall as input cost pressures ease Most of the recent acceleration in services inflation reflects pass-through of higher goods prices. While firms have become more willing to pass on higher input costs, we still think that sluggish... 22nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wage growth stronger than official figures suggest The slowdown in regular earnings at the start of the year largely reflects sampling changes, with an unchanged sample of firms reporting continued strong wage growth. However, with inflation set to... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yield Curve Control here to stay for now The Bank of Japan predicted that inflation will fall well below its 2% target in FY2025 when it kept policy settings unchanged today. And while it pledged to conduct a review into its policy measures... 28th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update CRE downturn could deepen looming recession The turmoil in the US banking system is likely to set off the worst decline in Japan’s commercial real estate prices since the Global Financial Crisis by prompting foreign investors to stop buying... 27th April 2023 · 4 mins read
