India Economics Weekly External position looking healthy, RBI to stand pat Data released this week show that India's current account deficit narrowed at the end of last year and, while it may widen over the coming months, we think it will remain well within the 2% of GDP... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Prop from stimulus to be short-lived China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. 27th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery stuck in low gear Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The past month has seen Egypt’s economic crisis turn around with the devaluation of the pound, aggressive interest rate hike, and unlocking of a new IMF deal. There have been false dawns before, but... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Increasing economic slack to trigger interest rate cuts We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in... 26th March 2024 · 14 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data... 26th March 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa... 25th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024) GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here... 22nd March 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Flexible EGP on the rise, Morocco’s cautious central bank The Egyptian pound has appreciated by 10% against the dollar in the past couple of weeks since its devaluation, providing hope that the CBE is finally following through with its commitment to a more... 21st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 24) The trade balance didn’t fall nearly as much as most had anticipated in February and net trade will only provide a small drag on Q1 GDP growth. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Climate Economics Update “New Three” export prices continue to plunge The latest monthly trade data from China highlight how the huge expansion in local manufacturing capacity is pushing down green technology prices and will only add to western concerns about trade... 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest... 18th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Would Vietnam win a second trade war? Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated)... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s sensitivity to Chinese demand rising again Easing trade tensions and the relative resilience of iron ore prices relative to prices of fossil fuels have once again lifted China’s importance as a destination for Australia’s exports over the last... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read