Global Markets Update New forecasts for developed market government bonds In line with our upwardly revised forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we’ve raised our projections for 10-year government bond yields in most other developed market economies. But we still... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The Chilean peso likely to break its spell of underperformance We think the Chilean peso is poised for a rebound in 2024 as the headwinds from the narrowing interest rate differential and the terms of trade deterioration reverse. 26th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Raising our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield We still expect the 10-year Treasury yield to fall in the coming quarters. But we’ve revised up our projections for that yield from now to end of 2025, and now think it will reach its cyclical low in... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Global risks and the outlook for EM dollar sovereign bonds We think the macroeconomic environment will continue to play the key role in the outlook for emerging markets (EM) dollar-denominated sovereign bonds this year and next. Despite country-specific risks... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How demand and supply affect Treasury term premia Estimates suggest that the term premium of US 10-year Treasuries has bounced back to positive territory. We think that this can be at least partly explained by demand and supply factors. And we... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for euro-zone “peripheral” spreads While we think the risk of a material increase in euro-zone “peripheral” spreads has risen, our central forecast remains that they will end 2024 a bit below their current levels. 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Why the 10-year Treasury yield could yet fall back significantly Although the 10-year Treasury yield rose further to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~4.5% in the wake of this week’s FOMC meeting, we continue to forecast that it will drop back to 3.75% by the... 22nd September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds might fare as easing cycles gather pace We expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed market economies to fall over the remainder of this year and next, as central banks shift focus to monetary easing. But, in some cases, we... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to rally Given our dovish view of monetary policy in Emerging Markets (EMs) – and our increasingly less bearish view of the US economy – we think that EM local-currency government bond yields will fall across... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the S&P 500, US Treasuries, and the dollar We’ve revised up our projections for the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield, but still expect both to fall a bit by the end of this year. We have also tweaked our forecast for the US dollar. 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect a rally in government bonds in the US and Europe Market implied rates suggest that investors expect inflation to normalise in the US and Europe in the next couple of years. While we share that view, we think they are overestimating the level of... 8th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Is there much scope for the S&P 500 to build on its gains? We think there is ample scope for the US stock market to perform strongly in 2024 and 2025. Admittedly, this year’s rally in the S&P 500 hasn’t had much to do with expectations of faster growth in... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We still expect Gilt yields and sterling to fall Gilt yields and sterling have fallen from their cycle highs over the past month or so, and we think the worsening economic growth outlook in the UK and elsewhere mean that this trend will continue... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We still expect Treasury yields to fall We think the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year well below its current level. 23rd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What China’s grim economic picture means for its markets With the headwinds growing for China’s economy, we think its equity markets will struggle, its 10-year yield will continue to fall and its currency won’t rebound as quickly as we’d thought. In view of... 17th August 2023 · 5 mins read