Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Annual GDP (2025) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth to 1.0% in 2025 is consistent with a slight pickup in momentum in the economy in Q4, but the big picture is that the economy is under strain due to the war... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Feb 2026) The robust pick-up in the current conditions index hints that the labour market, while still weak is improving, while inflation expectations seem to be heading in the right direction. Admittedly the... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Local governments plan to keep tightening their belts China’s provincial governments have now concluded the annual meetings at which they set economic targets and lay out fiscal plans. They anticipate slower GDP growth this year and plan to continue with... 6th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Christine Lagarde’s wishful thinking on AI This week’s inflation data and ECB decision were in line with expectations. In this Weekly we take a look at Christine Lagarde’s claim that there is a significant AI-related pick-up in investment in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA and the bursting of the precious metals bubble We think that the recent drop in precious metals prices has further to run, and the recent outperformance in South Africa’s financial markets has come to an end. But on the macro side, South Africa’s... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s GDP rebound, Asian elections in focus Q4 GDP growth in Indonesia surprised on the upside at 5.4% y/y, the fastest pace since 2022 and a rare break from the strikingly narrow growth range seen over the past two years. However, given... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI easing cycle comes to an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged today at 5.25% and sounded a touch more confident on the growth outlook. With a key downside risk to growth having abated, thanks to the... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The slump in German industrial production in December pours cold water on the hopes of an industrial recovery. And though the recent pick-up in industrial orders suggests the outlook for the start of... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to follow up this week’s 25bp hike with additional policy tightening in the months ahead. Indeed, with growth set to accelerate further above potential this... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Will the build-to-rent boom turn to bust? The boom in build-to-rent (BtR) housing starts to record highs, despite the immigration crackdown and accompanying fall in rents on new leases, reflects the significant expansion of government support... 5th February 2026 · 15 mins read
US Economics Update AI already making a big contribution to productivity growth The further gains in GDP in the ICT industries in the third quarter, despite another fall in employment, is a clear sign to us that AI is boosting productivity. While other factors help to explain the... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s corporate investment is on the cusp of a revival We think conditions for the long-awaited revival in private corporate investment in India are now largely in place. As a result, we now expect real GDP growth in India to average 6.5% per year from... 5th February 2026 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rebalancing process enters a more difficult phase The latest data out of Turkey have reinforced our view that the rebalancing process is becoming more challenging. At the heart of the problem is excessively strong domestic demand and the tension... 4th February 2026 · 5 mins read
