Canada Economics Update Mixed results from the Bank’s latest surveys The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys remain consistent with weak GDP growth and generally show that inflation expectations are normalising, but the latter are still too high... 1st April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Mar.) The PMIs from Emerging Asia remained weak in March. We think manufacturing sectors across most of Asia will struggle in the near term but activity in Korea and Taiwan is likely to remain strong. 1st April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Mar. 2024) Sizeable rises in the PMIs in March are consistent with improved economic momentum and/or the easing of sentiment effects that have weighed on the surveys recently. Either way, they add to wider... 1st April 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q1 2024) The slight fall in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that a rapid recovery from the likely slump in Q1 GDP looks unlikely. 1st April 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.) With industrial output falling yet again in February following the plunge in January, GDP will fall sharply in the first quarter. 29th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong start to the year unlikely to be sustained The economy made a strong start to 2024, but that was partly due to the end of strike disruption and the record warm winter. We expect GDP growth to slow sharply next quarter, persuading the Bank of... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment. But tight fiscal and monetary policy will constrain the recovery and our GDP... 28th March 2024 · 0 mins read
US Economics Weekly Port closure to have no significant effects on economy The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, which was hit by an out-of-control container ship this week, could result in a lengthy disruption to the Baltimore port. Nevertheless, since that port is... 28th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jan. 2024) The broad-based strength of GDP growth in January and February means the economy almost certainly outperformed the Bank of Canada’s expectations in the first quarter and reduces the immediate risk of... 28th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook On course for a soft landing In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US... 28th March 2024 · 45 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s path to faster growth, Houthis and Gulf oil output Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors and will likely see its new IMF deal approved by the Executive Board tomorrow. But the policies involve some near-term... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2023 Final) The final Q4 2023 GDP release confirmed that the UK economy was in the mildest of mild technical recessions at the end of last year. But timely indicators suggest the economy probably exited recession... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb. 24) 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 24) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read