Global Markets Update Tougher times may lie ahead for Brazil’s markets Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What the latest central bank signals mean for markets The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the aussie and kiwi have a bit further to fall We expect the aussie and the kiwi to weaken further against the US dollar and trough around mid-2023. And while we don’t expect the aussie to outperform the kiwi as it has recently, we think it will... 12th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE’s gilt operations – easy to start, harder to end Given that the surge in gilt yields that has forced the Bank of England to intervene in the market was initially driven by the government’s loose fiscal policies, it makes sense that the Bank may not... 11th October 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Answering your questions on currencies We held a Drop-In on Tuesday to discuss the growing turbulence in FX markets and our views on the major currencies. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop-In and answers several... 29th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Fiscal credibility key for Gilts & sterling Although the latest sell-off in Gilts has been driven in part by expectations for higher interest rates, the accompanying fall in sterling suggests the risk premia attached to UK assets has risen. In... 27th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response FX intervention aims to put a ceiling on USD/JPY 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What would a policy shift do for China’s markets? The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the yen to reverse course before long We think the yen will strengthen against the US dollar over the next few years, as the headwinds that have driven the currency to multi-decade lows begin to unwind. 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the energy price cap for UK markets Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. In... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Are markets really braced for further volatility? Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Brazil’s financial markets to struggle We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update A lot more pain to come for European currencies Despite their precipitous fall against the dollar this year and last, we think the euro, sterling, and most other European currencies will weaken further over the next twelve month as the economic... 31st August 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update REERs suggests need for further adjustment in some EMs While EM real effective exchange rates have held up better than their nominal exchange rates against the dollar since 2021, we think there are some economies where appreciations look stretched, and... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read