Global Markets Update How DM bonds may weather JGB market normalisation We think the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield will rise over 2024 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifts its policy rate early next year and constraints on the JGB market ease. And while that... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Swedish krona’s decade-long fall may be ending Our view about relative economic and interest rate prospects in Sweden and the euro-zone suggests that the Swedish krona’s recent rebound may prove durable. In fact, given how far below “fair value”... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Currency markets and the G10 easing cycle With the post-pandemic global monetary tightening cycle now drawing to a close, this Update takes stock of where interest rate expectations in the G10 economies stand and what that implies for the... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What’s going on in Asia’s bond and FX markets? We think the yields of long-dated local-currency government bonds in Asia will generally fall further by the end of next year, and that most regional currencies will continue to make ground against... 23rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Goldilocks and currency markets The emerging “goldilocks” narrative is a challenge to our forecast that the dollar will appreciate a bit over the coming months while the more cyclically sensitive currencies underperform, but we... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Outperformance of Brazilian assets likely to end soon Growing external and domestic headwinds suggest to us that Brazilian financial markets will come under pressure over the short term and are unlikely to resume their outperformance beyond that. In view... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Rebound in “carry” currencies may prove short-lived High carry EM currencies have rallied as US bond yields have fallen back and risk sentiment has improved, but we still expect most of these currencies to come under renewed pressure in the coming... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Déjà vu all over again for the dollar? The US dollar’s struggles over the past month or so are reminiscent of the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year, but a similar slide over the coming months looks unlikely. Instead, we continue... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ normalisation points to higher JGB yields & stronger yen We think the Bank of Japan’s continued steps towards policy normalisation are consistent with somewhat higher JGB yields and a significant rebound in the yen over the coming quarters. In view of the... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Reassessing the link between commodity and FX markets While we think the cyclical forces that have weakened the relationship between commodity prices and “commodity currencies” will fade before long, we suspect some structural factors – namely the US’s... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The Chilean peso likely to break its spell of underperformance We think the Chilean peso is poised for a rebound in 2024 as the headwinds from the narrowing interest rate differential and the terms of trade deterioration reverse. 26th October 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of our US dollar forecast While the global backdrop continues to favour the US dollar, it's rally has stalled in recent weeks and we think that, absent a major deterioration in risk sentiment, the greenback will struggle to... 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the European G10 currencies With most European G10 central banks now at, or very close to, the ends of their tightening cycles, this note examines where the European G10 currencies stand and how we see the outlook for the main... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high carry currencies will reverse course Although high “carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have held on to most of their gains during the greenback’s recent rally, we still think the outperformance of these currencies is likely to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
