Europe Economics Weekly ECB set for a hold, new r* projections Further evidence of economic weakness and easing inflationary pressures in this week's data releases suggest that a "hold" is now a done deal for next week's ECB's meeting. Meanwhile, the tentative... 20th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surge in gas prices not yet a major inflation risk Even if it is sustained, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices over the past week would add only around 0.1%-pts to our euro-zone inflation forecast for the coming year and would not require... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What the bond market sell-off means for the euro-zone The bond market sell-off, and associated tightening of financial conditions, reinforces our view that the ECB has finished hiking. The market moves have been nowhere near big enough to prompt the ECB... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off highlights fiscal risks The increase in euro-zone bond yields earlier this week seems to have been mostly a function of shifting global sentiment rather than a response to news from Europe itself. But it is a reminder that... 29th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising oil prices won’t cause the ECB to hike rates The increase in oil prices over the past few months will have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation, so it won't alter the outlook for monetary policy. We still expect that the ECB will keep its... 22nd September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly China EV investigation, ECB done with hikes The European Commission’s decision to launch an investigation into Chinese EV subsidies underlines policymakers’ resolve to slow China’s rapid ascent in the market. But any measures taken are unlikely... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession risk looms over ECB meeting Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will have some new and gloomy data releases to contemplate when they gather in Frankfurt next week. Indeed, the euro-zone economy looks likely to be slipping into... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker economy, lower inflation Data released this week are consistent with our view that euro-zone core inflation has passed its peak and that the economy will contract in Q3. And July’s euro-zone retail sales and German industrial... 1st September 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany struggling but “sick man” is overdoing it Worries that Germany is becoming the “sick man of Europe” have resurfaced over the past few weeks. While we think the German economy is heading back into recession this seems too alarmist. In many... 25th August 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish politics, Swiss industrial production This week saw Spain take a tentative step towards forming a new government, but there is a long way to go, and another general election may yet be needed. We also learnt this week that Swiss... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q2 resilience unlikely to last, but inflation to stay high National data released so far suggest that euro-zone GDP rose in Q2, but with activity surveys very weak in July and the full effect of monetary tightening still to be felt, we continue to expect GDP... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to hike again, Spain goes to the polls Data released this week support our view that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q2. Meanwhile, France’s government presented a plan to reduce its budget deficit next year but its plans are likely to... 21st July 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tighter policy on the cards, Germany’s China Strategy This week brought another raft of weak data on the euro-zone economy. And further struggles lie ahead, with the minutes of the June ECB meeting and a statement released by EU finance ministers... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone recession likely to have continued in Q2 The activity data published this week are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy contracted again in Q2. Next week, the ECB will publish the account of June’s meeting which is likely to... 7th July 2023 · 9 mins read
