Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The euro-zone’s industrial sector took a step backwards in May as the global semiconductor shortage hit auto production. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (June) The further fall in Swedish headline inflation in June is at odds with the recent data from the US and the UK, but came as no surprise given the recent drop in electricity prices. And with non-energy... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Investors’ ECB rate hike expectations look premature There has been very little market reaction to the ECB raising its inflation target to 2%, probably because the change was broadly in line with expectations. But markets are discounting ECB rate hikes... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics ECB move shifts goalposts for SNB; Löfven’s back! The ECB’s new monetary policy strategy means that the SNB is even less likely to be in a position to start raising rates in 2023, which is what investors currently expect. And it reinforces our view... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Delta variant won’t derail the euro-zone’s recovery The Delta variant does not appear to have taken hold in mainland Europe as yet, but the experience of the Alpha variety suggests that it could be dominant by the end of July. While this would be far... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Yet another blow to Europe’s vaccine rollout The delayed start to deliveries of the J&J vaccine is yet another blow to the rollout in continental Europe and on its own could delay things by at least one month compared to a situation in which the... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Can we trust the business surveys? A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why... 13th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics ‘Export ban’ won’t solve the EU’s vaccine woes The EU’s tougher stance on vaccine exports might help to secure some concessions and additional doses from the UK. But it will do nothing to combat vaccine hesitancy in parts of the bloc and is... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Europe falling further behind on the virus front A new wave of coronavirus cases in Europe, and the pause in usage of the AstraZeneca vaccine, raises the risk that the EU will fall even further behind the UK and US in its recovery from the pandemic. 17th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Counting the cost of the EU’s slow vaccine rollout The underwhelming vaccine rollout in Europe will probably delay the easing of restrictions and means that the best of the vaccine bounce will be pushed into Q3. That said, the planned EU-wide vaccine... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Nordics offer salutary tales for harder-hit economies The further slowdowns in monthly GDP growth in Norway and Sweden in August support our view that it will take a long time for output to recover to pre-crisis trend levels anywhere in Europe. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics French & Spanish GDP (Q4) The French economy’s healthy expansion in Q4 rounded off a strong year, while surveys point to an acceleration in growth ahead. Meanwhile, tensions in Catalonia had little impact on Spanish growth. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
