Europe Economics How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone? A Russian military invasion of Ukraine would adversely affect the euro-zone economy by further disrupting the market for energy, pushing up inflation and reducing households’ real incomes. However... 25th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Final HICP (July) The final euro-zone inflation data for July show that global supply problems have not pushed up goods prices dramatically, and “re-opening inflation” has been limited so far. We think that base... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The strong growth in the euro-zone GDP in Q2 is likely to be repeated in Q3 despite the spread of the Delta variant, and should bring the economy back towards its pre-virus size in the coming months... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics What can we learn from Iceland’s virus spike? The recent spike in virus cases in Iceland has raised eyebrows given the country’s high degree of vaccination coverage. Although the cause of the surge is unclear, Iceland’s experience appears to... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the Riksbank... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norges Bank treading water before taking the plunge The Norges Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold at zero next Thursday (19 th August), but it will almost certainly start to raise them, and tighten macroprudential policy further, in September. 12th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Industrial Production (June) The second successive monthly fall in euro-zone industrial production in June was largely due to ongoing supply-chain difficulties in Germany. As these will ease only slowly, we don’t expect industry... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The small increase in headline CPI inflation in Norway, and the bigger decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure, will have no bearing on the near-term outlook for monetary policy given that... 10th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weak wage growth trumps strong price pressures The latest data show pipeline price pressures continuing to mount in the euro-zone, pointing on the face of it to much higher consumer price inflation. But while there is arguably scope for a small... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Olympic productivity gains; fading boosts to Swiss CPI Norway’s Karsten Warholm had the race of his life this week, but if only it were as easy for economic policymakers to achieve the 1-2% productivity gains that the super-springy running track in Tokyo... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics German Industrial Production (June) The further decline in German industrial output in June, to 6.8% below its pre-pandemic level, underlines that the problems in the auto sector will hold back an otherwise strong economic recovery. It... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Final PMIs (July) and Retail Sales (June) The final PMIs show that the euro-zone’s recovery continued apace at the start of Q3. Price pressures are continuing to mount and point to an increase in inflation in the coming months, but we expect... 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
