Commodities Focus Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels... 24th February 2025 · 15 mins read
Event Drop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challenges 1740391200 Will the federal election outcome bring any clarity to Germany’s existential economic and political questions?
Commodities Update Russia-Ukraine gas transit stop is not a game changer The termination of European imports of pipeline natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will only increase the EU’s dependence on imports of LNG and ensure that energy prices there remain much higher than... 2nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Europe waiting for LNG to flow The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the... 10th December 2024 · 12 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
Global Economics Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
Event Europe Drop-In: The euro-zone inflation outlook and the ECB May meeting 1683036000 What do recent data signal about recession risk in the euro-zone? How high will the ECB take the policy rate to rein in inflation pressure?
Event Climate Drop-In: Forget COP27 – Economic and market forces will drive the green transition 1667489400 We don’t think COP27 is likely to achieve much.
Europe Economics Looming ECB rate hikes give SNB plenty to ponder We forecast the SNB to largely shadow ECB rate hikes over the next 18 months or so, albeit allowing the interest rate differential with the euro-zone to widen from 25bps at present to 50bps by end... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics EUR/USD: The case for parity We think the euro will eventually weaken further, falling to parity against the US dollar, as the euro-zone economy falters, the terms of trade shock from higher energy prices feeds through, and the... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas... 27th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics ECB FX intervention is unlikely There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics EU’s pivot away from Russian gas will come at a price While the plan to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas this year seems achievable, it will only lock in higher-for-longer gas prices and prolong the squeeze on household incomes. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Ukraine war puts ECB plans on hold At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council will stress that it will ensure banks have ample liquidity and that financial stability will be preserved while implementing EU sanctions... 3rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
