Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2023) Flows out of EM bonds and equity markets have intensified in recent weeks amid the sell-off in global bond markets, and an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Gaza would exacerbate this... 10th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threats to slow but not stop EM easing cycle Rising food prices have already led to upside inflation surprises in parts of Asia, and central banks in the region are likely to ease policy later than their EM peers. But inflation should eventually... 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Reducing dollar dependence won’t deter dollarisation Talk of “dollarisation” has recently re-emerged, despite broader moves in the EM world to challenge the hegemony of the US dollar. Indeed, the fact that Argentina is considering adopting the dollar... 3rd October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs a mixed bag, but export demand still weak The EM manufacturing PMIs for September were the proverbial mixed bag, but one commonality is that external demand remains fairly soft across the regions. Meanwhile, the further rise in the price... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher oil prices not the biggest threat to EM inflation The rise in oil prices, and upwards revision to our 2024 oil price forecast, will have only a small impact on EM inflation and won’t stop it from falling further. The much bigger upside risks to our... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Public debt risks persist in several major EMs EM governments’ budget deficits have narrowed and their debt-to-GDP ratios have fallen since the height of the pandemic. But some of the tailwinds that have supported an improvement in fiscal health... 13th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 underlines that fracturing is becoming a reality The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2023) Having remained resilient over the past months, inflows into EM bonds and equity markets have turned negative in recent weeks. Inflows into Turkey have weakened despite August’s sharp interest rate... 8th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Q2 GDP resilient, but weakness to come Excluding China, aggregate EM GDP growth held up surprisingly well in Q2. That said, we think growth will weaken in most major economies in Q3 and remain subdued over the coming quarters before a... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry strengthens, but export demand weak The manufacturing PMIs for August pointed to pick-ups in activity in some of the major EMs. But external demand remains soft, which continues to weigh heavily on some of the more export-oriented... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Wage growth still an inflation threat in Lat Am & CEE Despite the slowdown in EM GDP growth in Q2, there’s little sign that labour markets are softening. Wage growth remains alarmingly strong across much of Latin America and Central Europe (CEE). That... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt risks: Frontiers not out of the woods Market concerns about sovereign debt risks across frontier markets have eased a touch in recent months. For our part, while we think that Egypt and Nigeria should be able to avoid default, Kenya faces... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Ambition collides with reality at the BRICS summit China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current EM turmoil not a sign of widespread risks The crises unfolding in Argentina, Russia, as well as in China’s property sector, this week may rumble on for some time. And in the case of China’s property downturn, there are likely to be spillovers... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read