Emerging Markets Economics Update Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong The EM manufacturing PMI for April showed that industry continued its strong start to the year through to the beginning of Q2. At a regional level, the narrative was largely unchanged: India remains... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2024) Higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar have put some EM currencies under pressure this year, but external vulnerabilities have eased in most EMs which should limit adverse spillovers. Indeed, our... 30th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will China’s trade surplus impact EMs? While EM policymakers haven’t raised concerns about Chinese overcapacity in the same way that their counterparts in the US and Europe have, they too are facing widening trade deficits with China. We... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the currency sell-off? The recent bout of EM currency weakness may prompt (further) FX intervention, particularly in Asia, to stem currency volatility. Turkey’s central bank is likely to hike rates at its meeting next week... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran drone strike & the oil market implications There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2024) Capital flows into EMs have continued to rise in recent weeks, aided by robust global risk appetite. While yesterday’s strong US CPI release has clouded the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts and... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign default risks still high in a few places The incidence of sovereign debt distress has continued to decline across the emerging world in recent weeks, driven mainly by an improvement in global risk appetite and the corresponding narrowing of... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs show that EM industry continues to strengthen The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI to a three-year high in March was largely driven by strength in Asian industry, with activity elsewhere weaker. While slower growth in DMs should weigh... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest... 18th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth divergence set to continue We expect the divergence in growth prospects observed in EM Q4 GDP data to be a running theme over the next couple of quarters too. Specifically, we think that some of last year’s outperformers... 14th March 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India to lead EM rise up the global GDP rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs... 11th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs paint a mixed picture for EM industry The pick-up in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM industry continued to strengthen in Q1. But while manufacturers have benefitted from strong demand in some economies (such as India... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Headwinds to EM FX may persist in the short term Almost all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, and we think they will remain under pressure until interest rate expectations in the US shift lower... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read