Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan playing with fire, Russia’s commodity boom After putting the final nails in the coffin of the Turkish central bank's credibility with last month's surprise interest rate cut, the grave started to be dug this week with the firing of three MPC... 15th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU conflict, CEE tightening, auto sector woes The decision this week by Poland's Constitutional Court to rule that some EU laws are in conflict with the Polish Constitution has sent shockwaves through Europe and raises the possibility that the... 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Loose fiscal policy in CEE, Russia’s natural gas windfall Government draft budgets approved for 2022 this week in Czechia and Poland and further details of social support in Hungary suggest that fiscal policy will remain supportive of growth in Central... 1st October 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech the exception as rate hikes slow, Russia sanctions Central banks have started to slow tightening cycles in recent weeks and, in Turkey’s case, begin cutting interest rates. As inflation pressures ease, this pattern is likely to continue. But the Czech... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas prices rocket, CBRT tinkers, chip shortages mount The recent surge in European gas and coal prices adds to the price pressures facing the region and will push headline inflation rates further above central banks' targets in the coming months... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU dispute, Russia’s fiscal plans, Turkish inflation The Poland-EU dispute over the rule of law reached a breaking point this week and raises the threat of potential fines and a significant delay to receiving EU recovery funds, dimming an otherwise... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure Romania's new finance minister has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path, especially as the PM is seeking to raise spending. Elsewhere, Israel's fourth virus wave has... 20th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may... 13th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP a bit more hawkish, but poles apart from the CBR A slew of comments from policymakers at Poland’s central bank (the NBP) this week suggest that the probability of the central bank delivering a rate hike before the end of this year has increased... 6th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics CBRT dodging inflation duty, Poland’s tax proposals Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts this week and Governor Kavcioglu’s comments suggest that policymakers are unlikely to step up to the plate in the fight against inflation... 30th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Delta fears, Hungary-EU spat, more NBU tightening Concerns have grown over the past week about the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 but high vaccine coverage across much of the region has reduced the risk that policymakers will be forced to... 23rd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s virus resurgence, re-opening inflation in CEE The experience of Israel in recent weeks serves as a reminder that vaccine campaigns across Emerging Europe still have some way to go and that we are likely to have to learn to live with COVID long... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s inflation surprise, Russia & OPEC+ The surprisingly large rise in Hungarian inflation in June to its highest rate in almost nine years suggests that the risks to our interest rate forecast are skewed to the upside. Elsewhere, the... 9th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey dollarisation, Ukraine-IMF, Russia & Poland rates Turkey’s central bank took steps this week to tackle deposit dollarisation in the banking sector, although these efforts will fail to make headway in the absence of a stronger commitment to rein in... 2nd July 2021 · 11 mins read
