Asia Economics Weekly Currency weakness unlikely to last, BNM on hold The recent fall in Asian currencies is likely to reverse later in the year, if as we anticipate, the US Fed starts to cut interest rates soon. A rebound in Asian currencies should create an... 19th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: rise in female participation rate a welcome sign Korea’s December labour market report published earlier this week show the country is making welcome progress in bringing more women into the formal labour force. Unfortunately, however, this recent... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK meeting, Philippines inflation, Asian elections The Bank of Korea looks almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. But with inflation falling and concerns about the economy mounting, we expect the central bank to... 5th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls for 2024 Our three key calls for 2024 are that growth will struggle, inflation will fall and that central banks will start to cut interest rates sooner than most expect. 22nd December 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Xi’s visit to Vietnam, Sri Lanka on the mend Despite the close show of friendship on display this week during President Xi Jinping of China’s visit to Vietnam, our global fracturing map has Vietnam in the “lean US camp”. By leaning more towards... 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling fertility rates in Korea; BSP on hold The fertility rate in Korea fell to a record low of just 0.7 births per woman in the third quarter of this year – the lowest in the world. The country’s dreadful demographic outlook is the key reason... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak data from Korea; Indonesia and Pakistan elections This week’s data dump from Korea suggests the economy weakened at the start of Q4, supporting our view that the tightening cycle is over and that interest rate cuts could come onto the agenda soon. 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q3 strength unlikely to last, CBSL cuts again GDP growth rebounded strongly across most of Emerging Asia last quarter, but we doubt this strength will last. We expect growth to slow in the near term as weak exports and tight monetary and fiscal... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BI on hold, Taiwan opposition parties unite The recent recovery in the rupiah means Bank Indonesia is unlikely to follow through with another rate hike at its scheduled meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the chances of an opposition victory in... 17th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Close call for the BSP, but rates likely to be left unchanged The BSP’s scheduled meeting on Thursday will be a close call. On balance, we think the unexpectedly large drop in headline inflation last month and the recent recovery in the peso will be enough to... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea inflation concerns, rates to stay high in Pakistan Headline inflation in Korea rose again last month, but with the core rate dropping back and central bank officials becoming increasingly concerned about the outlook for growth, we expect the BoK to... 3rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April The economic landscape in Taiwan is shifting. Domestic demand is now cooling but exports have rebounded. Looking ahead though, renewed weakness in exports appears likely and we expect below trend... 27th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How will policymakers react to weaker currencies? A strong US dollar is a threat to countries with lots of foreign currency debt and/or inflation problems. If Asian currencies remain under downward pressure we expect policymakers to step up their... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Tighter fiscal policy in Malaysia , BoK on hold again Malaysia’s budget for 2024, which was unveiled in parliament today, envisages a modest tightening of fiscal policy. Tighter policy will weigh on an economy which is already being hit hard by the slump... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS on hold, inflation concerns in the Philippines. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Friday, but with the economy struggling and inflationary pressures falling back, we are expecting... 6th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s bullet train, forecast revisions, AI Spotlight Indonesia’s first high-speed train line is due to become operational this Sunday, when a WHOOSH bullet train departs the Indonesian capital of Jakarta for the provincial capital of Bandung, 88 miles... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
