Commodities Overview Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the big declines in energy prices are now behind us. Oil prices will remain... 5th January 2024 · 0 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Energy Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy prices will fall in 2024, although we think the big falls are now behind us. Supply has not... 4th January 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: refineries to help but not solve external strains Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote... 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia IMF deal, Angola leaves OPEC, DRC elections Zambia’s continued progress with fiscal consolidation is paying dividends. It unlocked the latest tranche of its IMF deal this week and its compliance with the Fund’s targets may help to progress debt... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities wrapped; shipping chaos; OPEC frictions While the robusta price had the largest gain this week (~11%) due to ongoing drought and dry conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, the rebound in oil prices captured most of the attention, as this was... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update COP28 & long-run energy demand The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A perfect storm at sea The attacks in the Red Sea are the third major disruption to maritime transport this year, alongside low water levels in the Panama Canal and collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Much will depend on... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: end of recession in sight, but sluggish growth persists Saudi Arabia looks set to record its worst economic performance this year, outside of the pandemic and the global financial crisis, in more than two decades on the back of lower oil output. The worst... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fed-induced rally; Panama canal disruptions This week was a tale of two halves. In the first, prices generally came under pressure, including oil which continued its post-OPEC+ meeting plunge as concerns of oversupply persist. In the second... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Outlook Metals to benefit in 2024 from green transition We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the... 15th December 2023 · 31 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Another year of sluggish growth Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid... 13th December 2023 · 22 mins read
FX Markets Focus The USD: not the commodity currency you’re looking for The US dollar and the prices of major commodities, in aggregate, have often risen and fallen in tandem since 2021, in contrast to their strong inverse relationship for much of the past two decades... 12th December 2023 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-Guyana tensions, new macro forecasts Venezuela’s increasingly assertive claims over the oil-rich Essequibo region, internationally recognised as part of Guyana, has raised the risk of some kind of miscalculation that leads to military... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Aside from oil, China’s imports on solid ground China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of... 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to fall by the end of next year Rising OPEC+ output in Q2 2024 should leave global crude supply less constrained than we had previously expected. This, together with only modest growth in global oil demand, should push the crude... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read