Could Trump’s new trade war derail the S&P 500 outlook

The S&P 500 has hit 6,000, but will a potential Trump trade war challenge the bullish 2025 forecast?

The S&P 500 has touched our end-2024 target of 6,000, helped by a post-election surge. When we first formulated our very bullish 2024/2025 S&P forecasts in mid-2023, there was widespread scepticism. As the index has risen towards them, other forecasters have scrambled to catch up. But does the impending second term of Donald Trump now threaten our optimistic views for US equities in 2025? Get this latest commentary from John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, to find out:

What an intensified trade war could mean for the S&P 500;
What the performance of equities at the start of trade war in 2018 says about the outlook;
How China’s response to tariffs could determine the AI trade.

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Trump's second term

Key insight into how the re-election of Donald Trump could reshape the global economy and markets

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