Commodities Update Unpacking China’s NPC for commodities The National People’s Congress reports struck a cautious note on the outlook for economic activity in China this year. Fiscal stimulus will be limited and efforts to prevent “disorderly” expansion in... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Futures Market Monitor (Mar. 2023) Most commodity prices fell and futures curves shifted lower this past month as higher interest rate expectations in advanced economies clouded the demand outlook. This is consistent with the downside... 7th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports to pick up from here China’s imports were weak in January-February, but commodity imports fared better. What’s more, we think crude oil imports, in particular, will pick up from here given the resurgence in travel demand. 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity demand to rise The February PMI data out of China suggest economic growth is rebounding rapidly. While growth should moderate over the second half of year, it still points to higher metals and crude oil demand... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China metals demand unlikely to pick up soon The January survey data out of China point to a revival in oil demand, but relatively flat metals demand. This is consistent with our view that the recent rally in metals prices is a little premature... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Futures Market Monitor (Jan. 2023) This is the first edition of a new monthly publication in which we will outline the latest moves in commodity futures markets and assess how they relate to our own view on fundamentals. Specifically... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economic fracturing in 2023 – new year, new risks The theme of global economic fracturing, which was the focus of our Spotlight Series of research last September, is at the centre of economic discussion in 2023, including at Davos. We held an online... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Lula unlikely to herald new era for biofuels The election of left-wing candidate Lula for a third term as Brazil’s president is unlikely to accelerate Petrobras’ sluggish shift towards large scale biofuel production. We expect proposed oil... 18th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Higher price forecasts due to China reopening China’s rapid reopening and the likelihood of policy stimulus there has improved the macro-economic backdrop for commodities in 2023. But with developed economies in recession, and a somewhat stronger... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to rebound this year Commodity imports generally rose in December, but fell in 2022 as a whole. In a possible sign of optimism around reopening, soybean imports skyrocketed. China’s unexpectedly swift switch to living... 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Upgrade to 2023 China forecast and its implications Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our forecast for growth there from 2.0% to 5.5%. This means that global GDP growth will be stronger than... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity demand to remain weak in Q1 The December survey data out of China were uniformly downbeat. The plunge in the official services PMI points to a fall in oil demand, but we suspect that the hit to industrial activity (and metals... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in risk appetite for industrial metals is premature Unusually, investors have been reducing their net-long position in the oil futures market, but increasing their position in industrial metals. We suspect this reflects optimism about China reopening... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The World in 2023: The outlook for commodity prices We think most commodity prices will ease back in early 2023, at the height of the global recession and monetary tightening in many major economies. That said, we expect a relatively shallow recession... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Weak demand to drag oil prices lower early next year The recent slump in oil prices tells us one thing – that demand concerns are in the driving seat. Given that we expect a further slowdown in global growth in Q1 2023, we think prices could fall... 13th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China re-opening optimism boosts commodity imports Rather surprisingly, commodity imports generally ticked up in November, despite the wider deterioration in China’s trade position. However, we think this reflects undue optimism about an imminent pick... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read