Commodities Update China’s commodity imports likely to moderate further China’s trade data for January-February show a clear deceleration in the growth of commodity imports. We expect this trend to persist over the course of this year as policy support is gradually... 8th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to miss out on the next commodity supercycle Slower demand growth and an abundance of supply will limit gains in oil prices over the long term, which we think will ultimately prevent oil from featuring in the next commodity supercycle. Join us... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US stimulus would be more positive for oil than metals President Biden’s ‘American Rescue Plan’ has been cited as one the key factors in the recent run-up in commodity prices. But even if it is passed in full, we think it will do little to boost commodity... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Softer China PMIs not a huge concern, for now China’s February PMI data were more subdued but still suggest that economic activity remains elevated, and the data elsewhere in Asia point to persistent strength in commodities demand in the coming... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update We expect commodities to underperform US equities Although we expect oil prices to rise a bit further this year, we doubt that we are in the early phase of a new “super cycle” in commodities. In fact, we project that the returns from commodities will... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US lumber prices to fall back from lofty heights We think that slower growth in US housing starts and increased supply will weigh on the price of US lumber over the coming quarters. That said, prices are likely to remain elevated relative to past... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Metals demand to hold up, despite weaker China PMIs The latest fall in China’s manufacturing PMI readings is a further sign that its economy is slowing. Nevertheless, activity there, and elsewhere in Asia, remains strong and we think that it will hold... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Animal feed consumption to increase Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, we expect that global demand for meat and animal feeds, such as corn and soybeans, will rise over the next few years. 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to get a kick from vaccine rollouts We think that coffee prices will be among the few agricultural commodity prices to rise in 2021, not least because a relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions should boost out-of-home consumption. 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Agricultural price rally to go into reverse by end-year We think that the surge in many agricultural commodity prices is somewhat overdone. Although ending stocks for the major grains and soybeans will be lower in the year ahead, they will still be... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update After a stellar 2020, China’s imports to ease back The latest China trade data showed that commodity import volume growth eased back a little in December. But tailwinds from 2020’s stimulus should keep import volumes strong for a while yet. 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Key commodity price forecasts for 2021 With the notable exception of oil, we are generally negative on the outlook for commodity prices this year. While oil should benefit from a vaccine-related revival in global transport activity, we... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China slowdown will weigh on metals prices in 2021 China’s December PMI readings suggest that the pace of economic expansion has started to ease, which chimes with our view that the demand for and, prices of, most metals will fall this year. 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Palm oil prices to go into reverse next year The price of palm oil has climbed resolutely since May, trading currently at a nine-year high of around MYR 3,800 per tonne. Nonetheless, we think that the price will fall in 2021, as supply... 23rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the... 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in agriculturals to end, despite vaccine support We have now factored the rollout of an effective COVID-19 vaccine into our forecasts and, as a result, we are slightly more positive on the demand outlook for some agricultural commodities. That said... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read