Commodities Update Sugar no longer in a sweet spot Even after accounting for a fall in Brazilian production and a rise in global demand, we still expect the size of the global sugar market surplus to increase in 2021/22, which will weigh on prices. 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s iron and copper imports to fall further China’s imports of industrial commodities, particularly iron ore and unwrought copper, eased back in May. We expect import volumes of both these commodities to fall further in the coming months as... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs may be as good as it gets The key takeaways from China’s May survey data are that while demand remains robust, supply shortages are leading to inventory drawdowns and price inflation. The data are broadly positive for... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices have further to fall We think that the prices of wheat, corn and soybeans will decline over the next six months owing to a rebound in global supply and slower demand growth in China. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dependence on Australian iron ore set to decline In the short-run, China has no choice but to grit its teeth and keep buying Australian iron ore, even as bilateral ties continue to fray. But this dependence will diminish over time thanks to... 26th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to disregard US dollar strength The recent depreciation in the US dollar has helped to boost commodity prices. But while we expect a stronger dollar to weigh on most commodity prices later this year, we think that oil prices will... 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s FYP points to lower global agricultural prices There are three overarching themes present in the agriculture document associated with China’s 14th Five-Year Plan – improving food security, continuing with the modernisation of the rural economy and... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports are on the way down China’s commodity imports fell back in April compared with a month earlier. This chimes with our view that imports of industrial commodities into China will come off the boil as economic growth there... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Overview We think that commodities & US equities will diverge While commodities and US equities often move in the same direction, this is not always the case. We expect poor returns from commodities over the next few years, but reasonable returns from US... 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Lumber prices to be cut down to size Even though we expect lumber demand to hold up well for some time, we still think that a rebound in supply will lead to a sharp fall in the price of US lumber over the next eighteen months. 20th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Corn price rally to run out of steam The ongoing revival in global demand growth together with constrained global supply means that the price of corn is likely to hold onto most of its recent gains for some time. That said, we think that... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity trade: cutting through the noise China’s imports of key industrial commodities point to ongoing strength in domestic demand. But the bigger picture is that import volumes remain well below last year’s peaks, and we expect growth in... 13th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to lower industrial metals prices Despite some conflicting messages from the official and unofficial PMI data out of China, both surveys continue to point to lower industrial metals prices. A pick-up in manufacturing activity and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Little chance of a supercycle in agriculturals Agricultural prices are currently trading near multi-year highs, but we doubt that a supercycle is underway or will occur anytime soon. Instead, we think that agricultural prices will fall over both... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Supply constraint to support prices in the near term The deeper-than-expected production cuts by most OPEC+ member states and a revival in global demand means that the oil market is now likely to be in a bigger deficit than we had previously envisaged... 12th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in metals prices reminiscent of post-GFC Industrial metals prices have soared recently to multi-year highs. But we think the rally is unsustainable. In fact, it cements our view that slowing growth in China will drag prices lower by end-2021... 10th March 2021 · 3 mins read