Capital Daily Peace talks, defence spending, and European markets Increased defence spending in Europe would in our view point not only to higher bond yields but also to wider spreads with German bonds. While industrial equities would presumably benefit, they might... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is Trump’s love for tariffs really reciprocal in markets? US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he will pursue imposing reciprocal tariffs triggered rallies in bond and equity markets, but we would be surprised if investors were really enthusiastic... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Peace in Ukraine? Market implications of Trump-Putin call President Trump’s push for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war would affect major financial markets mainly through lowering energy prices, especially in Europe. In turn, that would be a boost... 13th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury sell-off has a bit further to run Another January price surge has sparked a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, and supports our view that further Fed rate cuts are off the table this year. While we think US equities will resume their... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Getting to grips with TIPS Although the 10-year TIPS yield has fallen on net since the start of this year, we doubt it will drop to an even lower level by the end of 2025. That’s because we don’t expect the slight further... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What next for gold after another record high? Gold has soared to another record high today amid a further ratcheting up in trade tensions. However, we think the rally may falter before too long. 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls may be the start of some more pain for Treasuries January’s strong US employment report supports our view that the Fed will stay on the sidelines during the rest of 2025, as well as our forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields likely to fall and weigh on the pound We expect the Bank of England to cut faster and further than investors expect, pushing Gilt yields down and in turn weighing on the pound. 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs are just one threat of many to China’s markets Tariffs could continue to be a big challenge to China’s renminbi and stock market, but we think both could have a tough year regardless of how trade tensions play out. 5th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A few observations from the market reaction to tariffs While we expect the US to start a trade war this year, we doubt that the initial reaction to the tariffs on Monday will necessarily set the tone for 2025. 4th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trump’s tariffs roil markets: what next? US President Trump has ended weeks of speculation and announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. We think there are a few points to note on their implications for global markets. 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily DeepSeek’s threat to US equity outperformance We don’t think US equity market outperformance is over yet, despite the challenge from DeepSeek. 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see Bund yields falling this year even if UST yields don’t Even though we forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to end 2025 close to its current level, we anticipate that the 10-year Bund yield will fall over the rest of the year as the ECB, unlike the Fed... 30th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Plan to “kickstart” UK growth fails to impress markets While there has not been much market reaction to the speech that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered today on how to “kickstart economic growth”, we are still quite optimistic about the long-term... 29th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Could the stock market rally without its leaders? We think it’s too soon to say whether this is the start of a slump for those large US firms which have benefited most from AI hype until now – but if it was, what would it mean for the S&P 500? Our... 28th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Deep trouble for the US stock market? News that Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s AI Assistant has usurped US OpenAI’s ChatGPT as the most downloaded free app on Apple’s App Store has dealt the US stock market a blow today, just a week after... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
