Capital Daily

Weaker MXN no major concern for Banxico, nor for us

At Banxico’s meeting yesterday, worries over the weakness in the Mexican economy outweighed concerns over the sell-off in the Mexican peso and prompted the central bank to restart its easing cycle...

9th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of the recent market turmoil

Financial markets have generally now unwound about half of the big moves from late last week and early this week, helped by jobless claims data today soothing concerns over a US economic recession. In...

8th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Is the yen’s rally – and all that went with it – over?

We’re not so sure the yen’s gains are done, even though it sagged earlier today.

7th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo

Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets.

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama

The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider.

5th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

We doubt the US economy will stall the equity rally for long

Renewed fears of a US recession have increased the chances of additional rate cuts from the Fed. But we don’t think that the US economy will stand in the way of an equity rally for much longer.

2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

What’s next for markets as BoE cuts and Fed gets close

Bond yields have fallen in the US and the UK after the Fed signalled an imminent rate cut and the Bank of England delivered one. But only in the UK do we see more room down for yields.

1st August 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

What a hawkish BoJ might mean for markets

Today’s decision by the BoJ to tighten policy by more than discounted in the markets was accompanied by a stronger yen, higher bond yields and a rise in the stock market. However, we don’t think these...

31st July 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

ECB still likely to cut in September despite mixed data

Today’s release of inflation and activity data for the euro-zone has in our view slightly reduced the chances of a cut from the ECB at its next meeting. However, the bigger picture is that the data...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

The market implications of the UK’s spending shortfall

The lack of much reaction on net in markets to today’s statement by the UK’s new Chancellor suggests to us that investors remain confident in the Labour Party’s commitment to fiscal discipline. But...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Carry trade trouble need not pop the equity bubble

Despite the possibility that the unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has amplified the global stock market sell-off lately, we think equity prices could rebound even if the yen continued to strengthen.

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

We think big-tech stocks will return to the top

We think that, in the absence of a recession, “big tech” stocks will regain the lead before long, regardless of the pace of falling inflation.

25th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Big-tech results and rotation

Today’s sell-off in the US stock market in the wake of a poor reception to yesterday’s results from the first two members of the ‘Magnificent 7’ to report during this earnings season is likely to have...

24th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

US banks may rally further

We think there are a number of factors supporting the recent rally in US bank shares, not just the rotation out of tech stocks. So, while we doubt this rotation is here to stay, we think bank stocks...

23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Whither the “Trump-trade” post-Biden?

President Joe Biden’s decision to drop his re-election bid adds another element of uncertainty to the election campaign, but it is unlikely, by itself, to alter the calculus facing market participants...

22nd July 2024 · 4 mins read