Capital Daily

Can’t get no (further) relief

Despite further encouraging headlines on tariff reduction, a relief rally in Asian markets trading today has been notable by its absence. This reinforces our view that further gains in equity markets...

24th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Relief rally built on shaky foundations

Both US equities and government bonds have staged a relief rally over the past 24 hours, as concerns about Fed independence and the trade war have eased. But the fact that the rally was sparked...

23rd April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Pressure on Powell points to steeper curve

Fears over the independence of the Fed can now be added to the growing list of things troubling investors. Market moves over the past couple of days shed some light on the likely market consequences...

22nd April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Rally in Bunds and euro has run its course

Policymakers at the ECB appear to agree with us that risks to growth and inflation are increasingly skewed to the downside, supporting our view that the 10-year German Bund yield will stay around its...

17th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Further renminbi weakness looks likely to us

We think China will continue to allow the renminbi to weaken, perhaps all the way to 8.0/$ .

16th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Market turbulence may continue to subside

While the dust from the market sell-off continues to settle, there are few signs that the turmoil in equity and sovereign bond markets has sparked broader instability or a self-reinforcing downward...

15th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Is the worst in markets over?

The market turmoil sparked by the tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on “Liberation day” has somewhat eased in the past couple of trading days. Absent further bad news, we think the worst...

14th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Xi to Trump: Anything You Can Do (I Can Do … )

China’s tit-for-tat retaliation in its rapidly escalating trade war with the US exerted some renewed pressure on equities and the dollar today, with bonds still buffeted by expectations of monetary...

11th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Stock market’s recovery hasn’t left it fully healed

US President Trump’s decision to pause the implementation of many of his previously announced tariffs has sent markets – especially equities – soaring, but there are some risk premia remaining that...

10th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

More thoughts about the ongoing rout in Treasuries

US Treasuries are not benefitting from market turmoil, and we suspect they will keep struggling.

9th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of the sudden sell-off in bonds

We think the turnaround in longer-dated Treasury yields has bit further to run, if – and it’s a big if – the worst is now over for the US stock market.

8th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Trump’s medicine leaves a bitter taste for equities

The carnage in global equity markets has continued after President Trump doubled down on his tariff plans, noting that “sometimes you have to take a medicine to fix something”. We still think he will...

7th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of the market fall-out

It’s not often that the US Employment Report is a sideshow. But that’s been the case today, as the ongoing fall-out from Donald Trump’s swingeing “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s strong response to...

4th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Two surprises in the market reaction to “Liberation Day”

Markets were roiled after Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs that were clearly bigger than many (including us) had expected. We think there are a couple of interesting facts in the market...

3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Will “Liberation Day” free the market from its shackles?

Volatility in the US stock market hasn’t picked up sharply since Donald Trump returned to the White House, despite a very high degree of uncertainty about his economic policies. That may remain the...

2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read