I’m away this week, so there’s no note from me. Instead, I’d like to point you in the direction of two recent pieces which provide important context for Russia’s current squeeze on Europe’s energy supply.
First, Andrew Kenningham crunches the numbers on the crisis facing Europe and finds that the hit to the region’s terms of trade is larger than anything recorded in recent history, including the 1970s oil shocks. Second, Liam Peach assesses the crisis from the Russian side, and concludes that Putin can continue to restrict gas exports to Europe for at least another year. Together they lay bare the scale of the shock that is coursing through the region, and suggest that it will continue for some time yet. You can find these reports, and other key pieces on this issue, on this dedicated page.
Finally, we know that keeping track of developments – and anticipating turning points – is becoming increasingly challenging in a fast-moving world. To better prepare our clients, we ‘ve constructed a series of dashboards and proprietary data series covering everything from recession probability models to measures of common inflation expectations. You can view them here, and can use them in your work and share them with your clients.