Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note The thin edge of the inflationary wedge If prices eventually start rising, debt-laden governments may be tempted to embrace them One of the questions we get asked most frequently is whether the pandemic will usher in a period of higher... 12th October 2020 The Chief Economist's Note What past pandemics can – and can’t – teach about COVID’s economic legacy A few weeks ago, I argued that the pandemic was a good illustration of Keynes’ principle of “ fundamental uncertainty” – an event that radically alters the economic outlook but is impossible to... 5th October 2020 The Chief Economist's Note How COVID-19 has stopped the march of globalisation The focus over the past week has been on the continued rise in infections in Europe, and the economic consequences of new restrictions that have been imposed in several countries, including the UK.... 28th September 2020 The Chief Economist's Note China’s rebound has failed to lift others One important point that gets missed in the debate over the likely shape of the post-virus recovery is that different economies are already rebounding at different speeds. According to the official... 21st September 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Economies after Covid The pandemic’s legacy won’t be found by obsessing over gloomy GDP forecasts In more normal times we would be about to embark on our annual conference tour. This year is a bit different; we will be... 14th September 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Where the Fed leads, others will follow In a few short lines, the Federal Reserve has set the stage for a quiet shift in central banking. For the past thirty years the orthodoxy has been that central banks should focus on controlling... 7th September 2020 The Chief Economist's Note “Fear factor” key in new outbreaks The virus continues to spread in different ways in different countries. The good news is that the spike in infections in the US Sun-Belt states has begun to subside. Infections at a national level... 24th August 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Thinking through the economic consequences of a vaccine Big efficacy, production and distribution hurdles lie between here and “normality” Is a vaccine against SARS-Co-2, the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, now within reach? And if so, will it... 17th August 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Why History May Not Repeat In Covid’s Aftermath Key differences with previous downturns may confound gloom about the long-term economic effects The global economy has now suffered two “once-in-a-lifetime” shocks in the space of less than 15 years... 10th August 2020 The Chief Economist's Note The Case of the Falling Dollar One explanation for the greenback’s weakness stands out In what’s been, at least by the standards of 2020, a relatively quiet summer period for financial markets, one question has stood out: what’s... 3rd August 2020 The Chief Economist's Note The ‘fundamental uncertainty’ of a double-dip recession Will new outbreaks of the coronavirus cause “double-dip” recessions? In truth, it’s impossible to say, not least because we don’t know what form any new outbreaks of the virus will take. Since we’re... 27th July 2020 The Chief Economist's Note V-shaped so far – but now for the hard part Developments over the past week or so have emboldened both the optimists and the pessimists. The good news is that the incoming data continue to suggest a recovery that is about as v-shaped as we... 6th July 2020 The Chief Economist's Note No time for caution Governments should help the recovery – provided it’s with the right kind of stimulus The past fortnight has seen a growing push in some quarters for additional fiscal stimulus to bolster the recovery... 29th June 2020 The Chief Economist's Note A tale of two lockdowns Recovery will hinge on the confidence of involuntary savers to spend post-lockdown The pandemic has done strange things to household finances. On the one hand, it has had a devastating impact on some... 22nd June 2020 The Chief Economist's Note Tracking the recovery Our new indicators compare how successfully economies are shaking off the coronavirus impact Two of the questions we are asked most frequently by clients are: why has the pandemic caused more economic... 15th June 2020 The Chief Economist's Note After the pandemic, what next? In last week’s note I argued that there were signs that the economic collapse caused by the pandemic was bottoming out, but that the recovery was likely to be slow going and uneven. In this week’s... 8th June 2020 Pagination Previous … Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Current page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note The thin edge of the inflationary wedge If prices eventually start rising, debt-laden governments may be tempted to embrace them One of the questions we get asked most frequently is whether the pandemic will usher in a period of higher... 12th October 2020
The Chief Economist's Note What past pandemics can – and can’t – teach about COVID’s economic legacy A few weeks ago, I argued that the pandemic was a good illustration of Keynes’ principle of “ fundamental uncertainty” – an event that radically alters the economic outlook but is impossible to... 5th October 2020
The Chief Economist's Note How COVID-19 has stopped the march of globalisation The focus over the past week has been on the continued rise in infections in Europe, and the economic consequences of new restrictions that have been imposed in several countries, including the UK.... 28th September 2020
The Chief Economist's Note China’s rebound has failed to lift others One important point that gets missed in the debate over the likely shape of the post-virus recovery is that different economies are already rebounding at different speeds. According to the official... 21st September 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Economies after Covid The pandemic’s legacy won’t be found by obsessing over gloomy GDP forecasts In more normal times we would be about to embark on our annual conference tour. This year is a bit different; we will be... 14th September 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Where the Fed leads, others will follow In a few short lines, the Federal Reserve has set the stage for a quiet shift in central banking. For the past thirty years the orthodoxy has been that central banks should focus on controlling... 7th September 2020
The Chief Economist's Note “Fear factor” key in new outbreaks The virus continues to spread in different ways in different countries. The good news is that the spike in infections in the US Sun-Belt states has begun to subside. Infections at a national level... 24th August 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Thinking through the economic consequences of a vaccine Big efficacy, production and distribution hurdles lie between here and “normality” Is a vaccine against SARS-Co-2, the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, now within reach? And if so, will it... 17th August 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Why History May Not Repeat In Covid’s Aftermath Key differences with previous downturns may confound gloom about the long-term economic effects The global economy has now suffered two “once-in-a-lifetime” shocks in the space of less than 15 years... 10th August 2020
The Chief Economist's Note The Case of the Falling Dollar One explanation for the greenback’s weakness stands out In what’s been, at least by the standards of 2020, a relatively quiet summer period for financial markets, one question has stood out: what’s... 3rd August 2020
The Chief Economist's Note The ‘fundamental uncertainty’ of a double-dip recession Will new outbreaks of the coronavirus cause “double-dip” recessions? In truth, it’s impossible to say, not least because we don’t know what form any new outbreaks of the virus will take. Since we’re... 27th July 2020
The Chief Economist's Note V-shaped so far – but now for the hard part Developments over the past week or so have emboldened both the optimists and the pessimists. The good news is that the incoming data continue to suggest a recovery that is about as v-shaped as we... 6th July 2020
The Chief Economist's Note No time for caution Governments should help the recovery – provided it’s with the right kind of stimulus The past fortnight has seen a growing push in some quarters for additional fiscal stimulus to bolster the recovery... 29th June 2020
The Chief Economist's Note A tale of two lockdowns Recovery will hinge on the confidence of involuntary savers to spend post-lockdown The pandemic has done strange things to household finances. On the one hand, it has had a devastating impact on some... 22nd June 2020
The Chief Economist's Note Tracking the recovery Our new indicators compare how successfully economies are shaking off the coronavirus impact Two of the questions we are asked most frequently by clients are: why has the pandemic caused more economic... 15th June 2020
The Chief Economist's Note After the pandemic, what next? In last week’s note I argued that there were signs that the economic collapse caused by the pandemic was bottoming out, but that the recovery was likely to be slow going and uneven. In this week’s... 8th June 2020