Africa Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine crisis raises inflation and debt risks The Russia-Ukraine crisis will improve the terms of trade of some African oil producers like Angola and Nigeria. But it will add to inflation pressures across the region. And in the meantime, investor... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget to sow seeds of fiscal slippage South Africa’s upcoming budget speech will probably contain better-than-projected fiscal results, allowing the finance minister to extend temporary spending measures without undermining near-term... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA takeaways, Nigeria FX policy, Ghana to the IMF? The economy was a key theme in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) in South Africa as the president vowed to press ahead with his reform drive but gave some ground to those in his party... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: ‘BIG’ expectations for SONA speech South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, facing an intra-party leadership contest in December, is set to use next week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) as an opportunity to drum up support. From... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria sticking with subsidies, dovish rate decisions The announcement by the Nigerian authorities to maintain fuel subsidies – rather than end the scheme as planned – reduces inflation risks, but the budget deficit is set to come in wider than... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Balance on South African MPC tipping towards rate hike A raft of recent economic developments have shaken up our near-term views on monetary policy in South Africa, and we now expect a 25bp rate hike at next week’s MPC meeting. However, our forecasts for... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC leadership contest, Ghana’s debt, Ethiopia’s conflict Leftist factions of South Africa’s ruling ANC already appear to be gearing up to take on President Cyril Ramaphosa in December’s leadership election and this is likely to push fiscal policy in a... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA experience offering Omicron hope? Nigeria’s budget Evidence is growing that South Africa’s Omicron-driven virus outbreak has been brief and not as economically damaging as previous waves. This is a promising omen for other economies in Sub-Saharan... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Virus waves across SSA, SARB tightening cycle After a week filled with central banks around the globe pivoting in a more hawkish direction, we have now pencilled more hikes into our interest rate profile for South Africa (but only after a pause... 17th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Omi-chronicles from South Africa and beyond South African officials seem to be pushing vaccine take-up to curb the latest Omicron-induced virus outbreak rather than tightening restrictions on activity. But with pressure building on the health... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Lockdown lessons from SA, influx of jabs and cash? South African policymakers appear to be reluctant to impose restrictions in the face of the threat from the Omicron variant, but their hand could be forced if the health system comes under strain. In... 3rd December 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Recoveries trembling under new virus variant threat A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly African central banks and the EM rate hike club This week, the South African Reserve Bank joined its EM counterparts in tightening monetary policy, but we don’t think that policymakers in South Africa will raise interest rates as aggressively as... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to hike or not to hike? That’s investors’ question The big event next week is South Africa’s MPC meeting which will be a very close call, but on balance we think that the first rate hike will not be delivered just yet. And, further ahead, the... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s post-election policy direction, Ethiopia crisis spirals Next week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in South Africa is likely to provide an early signal that the government is scaling back its fiscal consolidation plans following the ruling ANC party’s... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC election struggles, Eskom woes, Nigerian subsidies Local elections that take place in South Africa on Monday are unlikely to have a direct impact on macroeconomic policymaking, but a poor showing for the ruling ANC could intensify pressure on the... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read