Trump's second term

Key insight into how the Donald Trump's return is reshaping the global economy and markets

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Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality

What another Trump presidency would really mean for US growth, inflation and the Fed

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These reports address the core global macro and market issues around Trump's second term. Click the green button for our full coverage.

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US Economics Update

Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with tariffs

President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China from this coming Tuesday, (with the only partial exemption for Canadian energy...

2nd February 2025 4 mins read

US Economics Focus

US Focus: The inflationary impact of tariffs for all

President Trump’s various tariff threats would, if implemented in full, trigger a rebound in consumer price inflation later this year to between 3% and 4%, which would make it much harder for the Fed...

28th January 2025 16 mins read

Commodities Focus

What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency?

The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will...

23rd January 2025 17 mins read

Global Economics Update

The implications of Trump’s take on the Panama Canal

President Trump’s threats to retake ownership of the Panama Canal reflects its importance for US trade and the country’s strategic interests. It’s possible that these threats are simply another...

23rd January 2025 5 mins read

$Trump and the implications for global fracturing$

Global Economics Focus

Trump and the implications for global fracturing

Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its...

7th January 2025 6 mins read

US Economics Update

What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans?

The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could...

21st January 2025 3 mins read

FX Markets Update

Six key questions on Trump & the dollar

Donald Trump’s election win two months ago has already contributed to a rally in the US dollar, and we think there is a bit more to come this year. More broadly, the second Trump administration will...

15th January 2025 8 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Trump, tariffs and global supply chains

If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on...

14th January 2025 18 mins read

US Economics Update

How could Trump influence the Fed?

It is not clear that Donald Trump, if elected, would gain much from trying to force Fed Chair Jerome Powell out of the role only a year before his term expires anyway. Trump might instead focus his...

11th July 2024 3 mins read

US Economics Focus

Counting the cost of a crackdown on immigration

The incoming Trump administration’s proposed crackdown on immigration means labour force growth is likely to slow toward zero. That would pull down potential GDP growth to less than 2% and labour...

4th December 2024 16 mins read

US Economics Focus

Will Trump get his new tax cuts?

Although the Republicans completed a clean sweep in the recent election, we are sceptical that this opens the door to additional fiscal stimulus. We do expect the original Trump tax cuts, which are...

3rd December 2024 9 mins read

Global Economics Focus

How to think about tariffs

In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal...

25th November 2024 21 mins read

Global Economics Update

How will other countries respond to Trump’s tariffs?

The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating...

20th November 2024 9 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Will Trump be good or bad for the economy?

The market reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory suggests that, with the Republicans closing in on a clean sweep of Congress too, his return to the White House will be a net positive for the...

8th November 2024 7 mins read

Global Markets Update

New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency

We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher...

7th November 2024 5 mins read

Global Economics Focus

The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration

Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are...

6th November 2024 14 mins read

US Economics Focus

Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality

If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it...

31st July 2024 14 mins read

China Economics Update

Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China

Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The...

7th November 2024 6 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implications

6th November 2024, 1:00PM GMT

Our senior economist team were online the day after the election to help clients understand the economic and market implications of what we know so far - and what's still to be answered.

US Economics Weekly

Could Musk influence a future Trump presidency?

If Donald Trump wins the election, we think there are a few policy areas where Elon Musk, who has become one of the campaign's biggest supporters, would try to influence Trump.

25th October 2024 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

The impact of a Trump victory on Europe

A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and...

22nd October 2024 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine?

Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might...

23rd July 2024 16 mins read

Bonds Focus

Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?

Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive...

25th October 2024 17 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s Trump challenge

Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One...

7th November 2024 3 mins read

Trump's second term

The most frequently asked client questions around Trump's second term

How will Trump affect global fracturing?

How will Trump affect global supply chains?

How do tariffs affect economies?

What does Trump mean for Mexico?

What will higher tariffs mean for US inflation?

What will Trump's immigration policies mean for the US?

What will Trump mean for Europe's economy?

What will Trump mean for EMs?

How could Trump influence the Fed?

Will Trump enact new tax cuts?

What will Trump mean for China's economy?

Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality

Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with tariffs

US Focus: The inflationary impact of tariffs for all

What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency?

The implications of Trump’s take on the Panama Canal

Trump and the implications for global fracturing

What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans?

Six key questions on Trump & the dollar

Trump, tariffs and global supply chains

How could Trump influence the Fed?

Counting the cost of a crackdown on immigration

Will Trump get his new tax cuts?

How to think about tariffs

How will other countries respond to Trump’s tariffs?

Will Trump be good or bad for the economy?

New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency

The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration

Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality

Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China

Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implications

Could Musk influence a future Trump presidency?

The impact of a Trump victory on Europe

What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine?

Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes?

Mexico’s Trump challenge