Emerging Markets Economics Update What higher oil prices mean for EMs If oil prices were to remain at their elevated levels, they could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It would also ease any concerns about dollar pegs... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tightening financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have continued to tighten in Latin America and Emerging Europe and will likely remain restrictive throughout the year, weighing on activity in both regions. Meanwhile, although... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE corporation tax, Egypt-EU trade spat, OPEC+ The UAE’s plan to introduce a corporation tax next year will help to diversify public revenues away from oil and may provide Dubai’s government with greater resources to step in if corporate debt... 3rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE leaves rates on hold, but hikes on the horizon The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid stronger price pressures and, if we’re right in expecting the authorities to let the pound weaken gradually... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign debt risks becoming more acute Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened significantly in several Frontiers over the past couple of months, driven largely by country-specific factors. There are reasons to be hopeful that outright... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf slowed at the start of this year as governments tightened restrictions to tackle fresh Omicron-driven virus... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External imbalances growing in Egypt Egypt’s current account deficit has widened to alarming levels over the past couple of years which partly reflects the impact of the pandemic but it is also a symptom of an increasingly overvalued... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $90pb mean for the Gulf? With oil prices at current levels, nearly all of the Gulf economies are running twin budget and current account surpluses. We think that governments are more likely to save rather than spend this... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A slower recovery in 2022 Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening... 28th January 2022 · 28 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Russia-Ukraine, Oman subsidies Further reports that Egypt’s government is stepping up the pace of structural reforms are promising for the country’s longer-term growth prospects. For the Gulf economies, Russia-Ukraine tensions... 27th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy on course for strong 2022 Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has hit a bump in the road over the past month or so as the Omicron variant has caused activity in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy to slow. But the experience from other... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022 The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above... 25th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, UAE drone attack, Gulf monetary tightening The recent upwards revision to our oil price forecast means that the window for looser fiscal policy in the Gulf will remain open for a little longer than we anticipated. One of the factors driving... 20th January 2022 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC continued to raise output by less than its target in December. However, the group is still steadily raising output, which is a key reason why we see the market moving into a surplus this year. 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
