Europe Economics Update Greece: After the election A victory for Greece’s anti-bail-out parties in the June election would not necessarily mark the end of the bail-out deal. But any agreement which is reached between the Government and the troika is... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Apr.) & Construction (Mar.) April’s producer price figures indicated that firms are passing on a bigger than expected proportion of past increases in their costs to customers. But with the latest construction figures suggesting... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Putin 2.0 for real? In his first speech since returning to the Russian presidency, Vladimir Putin underlined the need to shift towards a more liberal economic policy. We have been here before, of course, and we remain... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election deadlock raises euro exit risk The failure of the Greek election to produce a new government provides some support to our view that Greece could leave the euro-zone as soon as the end of this year. 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the austerity backlash spreading to the UK? A bad result for the Government in Thursday’s local elections would suggest that the austerity backlash seen in the euro-zone has spread to the UK. But the coalition still seems set to stick to its... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Hollande really transform France’s outlook? François Hollande’s promises of a pro-growth strategy and a stronger leadership role in Europe have raised hopes about France’s economic outlook. But his bold words have so far been backed by few firm... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek election won’t buy much time Greece’s general election should result in the formation of a new Government that is, on paper at least, committed to the terms of the recently agreed second bail-out deal. But with the economy still... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Constitution key for Egypt’s new president Today marks the beginning of campaigning for Egypt’s presidential elections. While most commentators are focusing on the likely winner, we think that the definition of the exact powers of Egypt’s next... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s government falls victim to austerity backlash The fall of Romania’s cabinet earlier today adds to the growing list of European governments to be toppled by a backlash against austerity, reinforcing our below-consensus forecast for growth this... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine FDI: is there life after YPF? History suggests that the nationalisation of YPF may do little to deter FDI in Argentina’s energy sector. Nevertheless, we suspect that it will have a more significant impact on investment flows into... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austerity backlash brings new dangers The backlash against austerity in the euro-zone could improve the region’s growth outlook. But it brings new dangers too, not least by putting dissenting countries on a collision course with Germany. 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.2% m/m decline in February's retail sales values was disappointing but, given the news yesterday that wholesale sales increased by a much bigger than expected 1.6% m/m in that month, it still... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: PRI consolidates its lead The latest opinion polls suggest that not only does the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto have a healthy lead in the race to July’s presidential election, but that his party may also take control of Congress... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s surge in retail sales suggested that consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient and has increased the chances that the overall economy grew in the first quarter. However, we remain... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French election won’t tackle key issues With Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande set to emerge as frontrunners after the first round of the French presidential elections this Sunday, attention will turn more closely to what their policies... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
