Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Markets Economics Use setting Emerging Markets Economics
Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up a bit in December, but remained slow over the year as a whole. Portfolio flows into EMs hit a record high last year, and look strong going into 2018. … Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor …
12th January 2018
Several major EMs, notably Brazil and Russia, are likely to experience a pick-up in growth this year. But in others, including China, the cycle is now peaking. The net result is that, in contrast to the upbeat consensus, we expect aggregate EM growth to …
11th January 2018
Our indicators suggest that, while financial risks in EMs have diminished over the past couple of years, pockets of vulnerability exist in several countries including Turkey, Hong Kong and Singapore. … Vulnerabilities linger in a handful of …
10th January 2018
Frontier markets have enjoyed a recovery in 2017, with aggregate GDP growth set to reach close to 3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.3% in 2016. Frontiers in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa have exited recession, while growth has strengthened among …
20th December 2017
Our GDP Tracker suggests that the emerging world is on course to grow by just over 4.5% in 2017 – it’s fastest pace of expansion in six years. The pick-up has been broad-based, with growth in Emerging Asia, Emerging Europe and Latin America accelerating …
18th December 2017
2017 was the first year since 2014 in which EM exports recorded positive growth. However, two of the key props to this year’s export recovery are likely to weaken over the coming quarters – meaning that EM export growth is likely to soften in 2018. … …
15th December 2017
The emerging world is currently expanding at its fastest pace in four years, but we don’t think this will last in 2018. In this Focus we outline our key calls for next year. … Key calls for EMs in …
14th December 2017
Despite the prospect of more monetary tightening in the US than investors are anticipating next year, we think that local factors will have more of a bearing on monetary policy in emerging markets (EMs) then. Reflecting this, we would not be surprised to …
13th December 2017
Our tracker suggests that capital flows into and out of the EM world were essentially balanced last month. Over 2017 as a whole, outflows will be about US$55bn, just an eighth of the total recorded in 2016. … Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor …
12th December 2017
In this note we publish a guide to elections that are scheduled across the emerging world in 2018. The calendar is busier than it was in 2017 but, whereas elections this year boosted the prospects for economic reforms in some EMs (e.g. Argentina), the …
6th December 2017
The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest EM manufacturing growth has gained momentum across the emerging world and looks set to end the year on a positive note. … EM manufacturing growth on the rise in …
1st December 2017
Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in just over five years in September. However, more timely data from early reporting countries suggests that growth has softened at the start of Q4. … EM GDP growth ends Q3 on …
29th November 2017
The risks around EM credit expansion are, in our view, commonly misunderstood. In particular, threemyths appear to have developed in commentary around the subject. … Debunking three myths about EM …
28th November 2017
Frontier markets have been gripped by political upheaval in recent weeks. In the largest frontier economy, Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (known as MbS) has overseen a high-profile anti-corruption crackdown. Tackling corruption is clearly …
24th November 2017
The latest data continue to show a broad acceleration in GDP growth across most of the emerging world. A common thread has been a pick-up in exports, with volumes growth now up on the start of the year in every EM region with the exception of the Middle …
22nd November 2017
Periodic bouts of investor concern over Fed policy tightening appear to be having less and less effect on financial markets in EMs. That being said, the one consistent theme that emerges from our analysis of recent Fed-related sell-offs is that one EM …
15th November 2017
The jump in oil prices over the past couple of weeks doesn’t radically alter the outlook for EMs. However, if sustained, it could exacerbate concerns we already have about some parts of the emerging world – for example, by causing Turkey’s current account …
13th November 2017
EM exports look to have finished Q3 on a strong note, albeit with help from seasonal effects. Otherwise, a year on from Trump’s election, protectionist rhetoric is yet to result in material changes to trade policy. But Trump’s words during his Asia tour …
10th November 2017
Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up to a nine month high in October. Even so, they remained weak by the standard of recent years. … Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor …
9th November 2017
One year on from his election, Donald Trump is struggling to live up to the promises he made on the campaign trail to get tough with countries that run big bilateral trade surpluses with the US. However, it is clearly too soon to sound the all-clear, …
8th November 2017
The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and that the best days of the rally in EM asset prices are …
2nd November 2017
Our estimate of the aggregate Emerging Market manufacturing PMI suggests that manufacturing activity weakened at the start of the Q4. This slowdown appears to be broad-based across EM regions. … EM manufacturing growth eases in …
1st November 2017
Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in four-and-a-half years in August. However, there are some early signs that EM growth will ease over the coming months. … EM GDP growth at multi-year high in …
30th October 2017
The raft of GDP data released over the past month or so showed that the recovery in frontier markets strengthened in Q2. According to our GDP-weighted measure of growth, frontier economies expanded by 2.4% y/y in Q2, up from 1.9% y/y in the previous …
25th October 2017
Our relatively sanguine view on the outlook for EMs over the next 12-18 months has prompted several clients to ask about risks to our forecasts. While risks – both positive and negative – are by their nature difficult to anticipate, we think there are …
24th October 2017
In an otherwise quiet month for EM markets, the sharp falls in the Mexican peso and Turkish lira have stood out. In each case, the triggers have been different – the 7% fall in the peso against the dollar since the start of the month reflects concerns …
20th October 2017
After a big rally earlier in the year, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar recently as US rate expectations have picked up. We doubt that much larger falls are around the corner, even though we think that the Fed will hike by …
19th October 2017
Total EM capital outflows slowed to a trickle in September. Portfolio inflows also seem to be slowing, but they remain very high by the standard of recent years. … Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor …
17th October 2017
EM exports look to have grown strongly in Q3, helped by a rise in commodity prices. However, this is unlikely to herald a return to the rapid rates of export growth seen at the beginning of 2017. Export growth is instead set to gradually slow over the …
13th October 2017
All EMs have entered a period of permanently weaker growth but it remains the case that growth rates over the next decade or so will differ significantly between countries. In this Focus we identify the likely characteristics of winners – and losers – in …
11th October 2017
Economic growth looks set to strengthen in most EMs over the next year, but the cycle is now close to peaking in China and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. … Nearing the cyclical …
5th October 2017
The decision by the Fed to begin the process of balance sheet reduction this month – coupled with the heavy hints that a December rate hike remains on the table – has led several clients to ask about dollar debt burdens in EMs. In this note we revisit a …
4th October 2017
The latest Markit PMI surveys suggest that conditions in emerging market manufacturing eased a touch at the end of Q3, but remain robust compared with the past few years. … EM manufacturing still in decent …
2nd October 2017
Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up in July to its fastest pace since Q1 2014. But there are early signs that growth has since peaked in parts of the emerging world. … EM growth picks up at the start of …
28th September 2017
The jump in oil prices, from $51pb at the start of September to around $59pb at the time of writing, should provide a fillip to the large frontier oil economies, such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Kazakhstan. If sustained, we estimate that this would …
26th September 2017
There are several reasons why the gradual tightening of monetary policy in developed markets is unlikely to cause major problems for EMs, but one of the most important is that current account deficits have narrowed substantially over the past few years. …
The fact that aggregate EM sovereign debt has now surpassed $11.7trn has grabbed a few headlines but several factors – notably the increase in EM GDP over the past decade – mean that fiscal risks are lower than the dollar numbers on sovereign debt …
19th September 2017
Emerging market (EM) corporate bond spreads are around their lowest since the onset of the global financial crisis. We think that they will remain low for the next year and a half or so – but expect them to rise sharply further ahead. … How vulnerable are …
15th September 2017
The latest activity data from EMs suggest that the economic recovery continued at the start of Q3. Consumer spending has continued to pick up across most regions, while both industrial production and export growth have remained relatively robust. Overall, …
13th September 2017
Having slowed in Q2, emerging market (EM) export growth ticked up a little at the start of Q3. However, this is likely to be temporary and EM export growth is set to soften over the remainder of the year. … EM export slowdown to be very …
12th September 2017
Net capital outflows from emerging markets slowed a bit in August, but the big picture is that they remained low by recent standards. Portfolio inflows weakened from the highs recorded earlier in Q3. … Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor …
8th September 2017
Last month’s PMIs suggest that conditions in EM manufacturing sectors improved in Q3, supported by most of the major BRIC economies. … EM manufacturing still going strong in …
1st September 2017
In a quiet month for economic news across frontier markets, politics has provided a regular stream of headlines. Investors were buoyed by results from Argentina’s primary elections which showed that support for President Macri’s coalition had held up …
31st August 2017
Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth was stable in June, adding to recent evidence that growth has peaked in this cycle. … EM growth stable in …
30th August 2017
Despite the focus in advanced economies on the timing of monetary policy tightening, the majority of EMs remain in easing mode. More EM central banks cut their policy interest rates than raised them for the fourth consecutive month in July. The bulk of …
22nd August 2017
Total EM capital outflows remained pretty stable in July. Net portfolio inflows picked up a bit, though more recent figures suggest that this may have reversed in August. … Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor …
18th August 2017
In this Focus we unveil the Capital Economics EM “Growth League”, which ranks EMs according to their growth prospects over the next two years. Countries such as Ethiopia, India and Vietnam are likely to record the fastest growth rates, while Venezuela …
14th August 2017
Emerging market (EM) export growth slowed a touch in Q2 and the early signs are that it weakened a little further at the start of the current quarter. However, the slowdown is very gradual – EM exports are far from collapsing. … EM export growth nudges …
11th August 2017
July’s PMI data remain consistent with a continued expansion in EM manufacturing, albeit at a pace that is down slightly from the highs seen at the start of the year. … EM manufacturing recovery soft at the start of …
1st August 2017
The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it not for weakness in the largest frontier market, Saudi …
31st July 2017
