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Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption

In our latest Long Run Economic Outlook, we argue that although President Trump’s policies will cause turbulence in the next few years, they will be eclipsed by the megatrends which will shape the global economy over longer horizons. We forecast that the US will still be the world’s largest economy by 2050 as it benefits most from an AI-driven productivity boom while China reaches the limits of its investment-led model. Meanwhile, India and several economies in South East Asia will rise up the global ranks.

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