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Recovery to benefit from ongoing fiscal support

The rise in cases of COVID-19 and renewed restrictions in some provinces have caused us to trim our forecast for GDP growth in the short term, but the bigger picture is that we are more optimistic than most about prospects in 2021 and 2022. The government has committed to substantial fiscal support and signalled more is to come which, together with the booming housing market, will support a relatively quick rebound in consumption. After a 5.5% fall this year, we expect GDP to rise by 5.7% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022.

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