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Asia-Pacific

China

A return to the streets, stimulus still being drip-fed

Consumers have returned to the streets, with daily data showing that mobility is now largely back to normal. But it will be a while before they fully reopen their wallets. A lack of substantial policy support is preventing a faster recovery. Officials continue to talk about doing more but the only concrete measures announced this week involved small-scale support for the auto industry.  

24 June 2022

CAP: Output to stagnate in 2022 despite latest bounce

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that around half of the drop in output during the recent virus wave reversed in May. This recovery looks to have continued in June. But a lot of damage has already been done and we now doubt that China’s economy will grow at all this year. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

22 June 2022

The case for a weaker renminbi remains intact

Although we now think policy rates in China will not be lowered further, we still expect the renminbi to weaken to 7.0/US$ this year. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

20 June 2022
More Publications

Four reasons why we expect further falls in EM equities

We think that stock markets in the emerging world will continue to struggle alongside their developed market peers over the next eighteen months or so, for four main reasons. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

Global Aluminium Production (May)

Global aluminium production has increased steadily since the start of the year in large part owing to a rebound in China’s output. At the same time, demand is relatively subdued, which suggests that aluminium prices have further to fall in the second half of the year. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

GDP target unattainable, shipping disruption

China’s statistics office is adept at massaging GDP data. But with many of the indicators that feed into GDP showing year-on-year contractions in April and May, even it won’t be able to deliver published growth at the rate the government wants this year. Meanwhile, the latest port throughput data suggest that Shanghai’s lockdown had a much smaller impact on shipping than commonly supposed.

Chinese refined output will only plug some of the gap

Robust Chinese refined metal output, alongside subdued domestic demand, has combined with constrained refined output elsewhere to provide greater export opportunities for China. But there are limits on the extent to which Chinese metal can fill the shortfall elsewhere. This is one reason why we expect industrial metals prices to remain historically high for some time yet. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

China Activity & Spending (May)

The May data suggest that a post-lockdown recovery got underway across most parts of the economy last month. It is likely to have progressed further in June. But the recent resurgence in infections in both Shanghai and Beijing means that the risk of relapse remains. And the latest data also underline that the recovery in consumer activity still has a longer way to go than that in industry.

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