Global Economics

Andrew Kenningham is our Chief Europe Economist. He has overall responsibility for running our European economics service and contributes more generally to our international economic analysis. Andrew joined Capital Economics in 2011 and has extensive experience as an international economist, most recently as Deputy Chief Economist in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

Andrew previously worked for Merrill Lynch for eight years, covering Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa for their fixed income business. Andrew has lived and worked as an economist in both Bulgaria and India. He has degrees in Economics and Economic History from Manchester University and the London School of Economics.

Articles published by Andrew Kenningham

• German Ifo Survey (May)
• High inflation, record trade deficit
• End of negative rates is nigh!
• German Industrial Production (March)
• Inflation becoming more entrenched
• ECB may need more than promises to contain spreads
• Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2022) and Flash HICP (April)
• Germany & Spain Flash Inflation (April)
• German Ifo Survey (April)
• A year of stagflation
• ECB officials begin to talk of July rate hike
• ECB sticks to plan for now, but faster tightening likely
• German Final HICP (March) and ZEW (April)
• Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.)
• How would Germany be hit by a gas embargo?
• Rate hikes are coming!
• Stagflation risks rising
• ECB cannot ignore surging inflation for long
• ECB won’t wait much longer to start rate hikes
• Germany Flash Inflation (March)
• German Ifo Survey (March)
• Assessing the impact of the Ukraine war
• Cyprus unlikely to be source of financial instability
• ECB accelerates taper despite Ukraine war
• Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth
• Ukraine war puts ECB plans on hold
• Germany Flash Inflation (February)
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.)
• The Ukraine crisis and the euro-zone revisited
• ECB only partly rows back from hawkish shift
• German Inflation (January)
• Will ECB tightening cause a fresh crisis?
• Shift in ECB stance poses risks to the bond market
• German Industrial Production (December)
• ECB turns hawkish and tees up 2022 rate hikes
• Euro-zone Flash HICP (Jan.)
• Germany Flash Inflation (January)
• German GDP (Q4 2021)
• How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone?
• German Ifo Survey (January)
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.)
• Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero
• Energy inflation will fall, but core will stay around 2%
• ECB increasingly split over inflation outlook
• Norges Bank will resume hikes in March
• German Inflation (December)
• German GDP (2021)
• ECB likely to raise rates to zero in 2023
• Inflation to remain above target in 2022
• German Industrial Production (November)
• Omicron won’t cause euro-zone to contract in Q1
• Germany Flash Inflation (December)
• Key calls for the euro-zone in 2022
• Surge in gas prices will keep inflation higher
• ECB slightly more hawkish than expected
• German Ifo Survey (December)
• ECB to continue, but gradually reduce, QE next year
• ECB to maintain flexibility in face of Omicron
• German Industrial Production (October)
• Omicron adds to downside risks
• Omicron: implications for the euro-zone
• Germany Flash Inflation (Nov.)
• Rising Covid fears will keep policymakers dovish
• German Ifo Survey (November)
• New Covid restrictions another headwind
• German Inflation (October)
• Recovery slowed by supply chain problems
• ECB pushes back as inflation pressures build
• German Industrial Production (September)
• Upward revision to our Germany inflation forecast
• Euro-zone GDP (Q3)
• ECB sticking to view that inflation is transient
• German Ifo Survey (October)
• A fresh start for the Bundesbank?
• ECB insisting that inflation is largely transient
• Running into troubled waters
• Few signs of inflation in Scandinavia
• Headwinds strengthening
• German Industrial Production (August)
• “Transitory” inflation won’t spook the ECB
• ECB could claim inflation is “transient” for years
• No major policy shift likely following German election
• ECB slows purchases but keeps policy ultra-loose
• German Industrial Production (July)
• Rise in inflation is not over
• Inflation to rise further, but then fall
• Slower purchase pace in sight, but rate hikes are not
• ECB may not agree taper until December
• German Ifo Survey (August)
• Germany’s recovery taking longer than expected
• German election result in the balance
• What to make of rising inflation expectations
• German election getting complicated
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (June)
• German Industrial Production (June)
• Strong recovery to continue in Q3
• Euro-zone Final PMIs (July) and Retail Sales (June)
• Reopening effects to persist in Q3
• Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2)
• Germany Flash Inflation (July)
• German Ifo Survey (July)
• Negative rates and QE forever?
• ECB reinforces commitment to keep rates low
• Strong rebound and temporary rise in inflation
• New guidance will set the bar higher for rate hikes
• ECB’s new strategy consistent with looser for longer
• ECB’s new target marks death of Bundesbank tradition
• Activity taking off as hospitality reopens
• German Industrial Production (May)
• Surveys overstating peak price pressures
• Euro-zone Flash HICP (June)
• Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)
• German Ifo Survey (June)
• How likely is a hawkish surprise by the ECB?
• Euro-zone on the rebound
• Euro-zone Final HICP (May)
• Labour shortages little threat to German wage restraint
• No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland…
• Not tapering yet, despite chunky forecast upgrades
• Falling inflation won’t stop Norges Bank rate hikes
• German Industrial Production (Apr.)
• Springing back to life…again
• Preparing the ground for a super-dovish taper
• Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.)
• Drop back in bond yields takes pressure off ECB
• ECB climate rhetoric to run ahead of action
• Housing boom to test the Riksbank’s dovish resolve
• Economy re-opening again
• German Industrial Production (Mar.)
• Vaccination pace finally picks up
• Euro-zone GDP (Q1, first estimate)
• German Ifo Survey (Apr.)
• Still running ahead of the pack
• Vaccine blues threaten to further delay recovery
• Euro-zone being left behind
• ECB to stick to current PEPP purchase pace
• Rotation trade to resume and to drag the franc lower
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.)
• Households still accumulating excess savings
• German Industrial Production (Feb.)
• Still waiting for a shot in the arm…
• Government troubles raise stakes in German election
• Falling behind on vaccines, stimulus
• Germany Flash Inflation (Mar.)
• German Ifo Survey (Mar.)
• Recovery postponed again
• Euro-zone Final HICP (Feb.)
• ECB promises more, but keeps it flexible
• ECB holds the key for Swedish and Swiss yields
• ECB’s dovish surprise to suppress bond yields
• German auto problems should be temporary
• German Industrial Production (Jan.)
• Price pressures building
• Hesitant ECB will probably step up bond purchases
• German inflation: below but close to 4%?
• German Ifo Survey (Feb.)
• Rising bond yields, resilient manufacturing
• Governing Council unanimous in January
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.)
• Super-sized boosts to energy inflation on the way
• Should the ECB write off government debt?
• German Industrial Production (Dec.)
• Slow vaccinations still the big concern
• Euro-zone HICP Inflation (Jan. 2021)
• Explaining Germany’s January inflation surprise
• Poor start to vaccine rollout poses risks to recovery
• German GDP (Q4 2020)
• Germany Flash Inflation (Jan.)
• At the front of the pack
• German Ifo Survey (Jan.)
• ECB not likely to accept tighter policy
• ECB on hold for several months
• Vaccine to drive recovery but risks remain
• Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.)
• Vaccines rollouts to boost GDP & Nordic currencies
• ECB to leave policy settings unchanged
• German GDP (2020)
• Fast-spreading virus, slow vaccinations
• German Industrial Production (Nov.)
• Second wave delays the recovery
• Virus poses downside risk to Q1 forecast
• Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.)
• SNB not out of the woods yet
• ECB extends implicit yield curve control
• German Industrial Production (Oct.)
• Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022
• Ailing economy to get policy booster
• ECB to keep supporting economy during recovery
• Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.)
• Higher GDP forecasts due to vaccine
• ECB account points to December package
• How will the ECB “recalibrate” the PEPP?
• German Ifo Survey (Nov) & Q3 GDP (Second estimate)
• ECB to give economy a shot in the arm
• Euro-zone Final HICP Inflation (Oct.)
• Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3), Int. Trade (Sep.)
• Vaccine offers hope, but clouds darken over Q4
• How would a vaccine affect the economy?
• German Industrial Production (Sep.)
• New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation
• Fresh lockdown will cause new contraction
• Another lockdown, another downturn
• Euro-zone GDP (Q3), HICP (Oct.), Unemp. (Sep.)
• French GDP (Q3 2020)
• ECB makes big promises for December
• What to make of the new Franco-German lockdowns
• German Ifo Survey (Oct.)
• ECB set to respond to second wave
• Second wave blows recovery off course
• Euro-zone Final HICP (Sep.)
• Second wave forcing more restrictions
• ECB account suggests no rush to boost the PEPP
• Second wave hitting growth prospects
• German Industrial Production (Aug.)
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.)
• New virus numbers peaking, inflation falls further
• Low inflation expectations add to ECB worries
• Lagarde points to dovish strategy conclusions
• EC Survey (Sep.)
• German Ifo Survey (Sep.)
• Norway’s fading rebound a warning sign for others
• Euro worries increase chance of rate cut
• Lagarde dashes hopes of early addition to stimulus
• ECB probably not too worried about the euro
• Recovery slows and inflation turns negative
• Growth slowdown, virus rebound to keep ECB dovish
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (July) & Final PMIs (Aug)
• Will the ECB follow the Fed’s lead?
• German GDP Q2 2020 (2nd Est.) & Ifo Survey (Aug.)
• EC Consumer Confidence (August)
• ECB to leave policy on hold for several months
• Second wave likely to be a drag rather than a disaster
• Rebound phase coming to an end
• Recovery on track after comparatively shallow slump
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.)
• German Industrial Production (June)
• Growing risk of a second wave
• Euro-zone GDP (Q2), HICP (Jul.)
• German GDP (Q2 2020)
• German Ifo Survey (Jul.)
• Recovery Fund doesn’t solve all problems
• Recovery Fund another positive step
• Slow and uneven recovery
• ECB to remain in dovish mode
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (May)
• Nordic economies outperforming the euro-zone
• Surge in bank lending unlikely to last
• Revising up our annual growth forecasts
• V-shaped after all?
• EC Survey (June)
• ECB account addresses German legal dispute
• German Ifo Survey (Jun.)
• German second wave risk looks low
• Signs of life after lockdown
• Consumption rebounded strongly in May
• Has the euro-zone done enough to avoid a debt crisis?
• Nordic economies closer to ‘normal’ than most
• Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.)
• German Industrial Production (Apr.)
• Policymakers getting their act together
• ECB meets high expectations for now
• Euro-zone and Germany Unemployment (Apr./May)
• EU borrowing plans helpful, but not a panacea
• Another half trillion of bond purchases
• EC fiscal plan significant but leaves ECB a lot to do
• What to make of the Franco-German fiscal proposal
• German Industrial Production (Mar.)
• Past the worst, but recovery slow and bumpy
• German court ruling highlights future risks to the euro
• Unemployment lower, inflation higher than expected
• ECB dragging feet over sovereign support
• Euro-zone GDP (Q1), HICP (Apr.), Unemp. (Mar.)
• EC Survey (Apr.) and Euro-zone Bank Lending (Mar.)
• German Ifo (Apr.)
• Divided politicians to leave ball in ECB’s court
• Comparatively well placed to weather the carnage
• Slump puts new strains on currency union
• Bank of France floats a version of helicopter money
• Eurogroup agrees on lowest common denominator
• Monetary policy still doing the heavy lifting
• Scale of the economic carnage is becoming apparent
• Deepest downturn since WW2
• GDP to drop by 25% during lockdowns
• ECB steps up, EU leaders at loggerheads
• Germany opens the fiscal taps
• Additional €750bn of QE will not be ECB’s last move
• EZ facing more than 10% quarterly slump in GDP
• ECB will be forced into more drastic action
• ECB response highlights EZ policy weakness
• Policy response to COVID-19 ramping up
• EZ heading for a sharp but (probably) short recession
• German Industrial Production (Jan.)
• Policy response will only cushion the blow
• Waiting for the contagion
• ECB virus response likely to include a rate cut
• Euro-zone GDP to contract in Q2 and perhaps beyond
• Household spending to be hit by the virus
• German GDP Q4 2019 (Second Estimate)
• German Ifo Survey (Feb.)
• ECB on hold until later this year
• German GDP, Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Emp. (Q4)
• Coronavirus driving financial market moves
• German Industrial Production (Dec.)
• Impact of coronavirus small but increasing
• Coronavirus a downside risk to already weak growth
• German HICP (Jan.)
• German Ifo Survey (Jan.)
• No change in ECB dovish stance for now
• Policymakers to follow the ECB down
• ECB to keep pushing on a string
• Christine Lagarde’s honeymoon continues
• SNB to be forced to cut interest rates again
• German GDP (2019)
• Another false dawn for inflation?
• Euro-zone starts the year on a weak note
• German Industrial Production (Nov.)
• EZ troubles likely to re-emerge in 2020s
• Predictions for the euro-zone in 2020
• Rally in the Swedish krona is unlikely to last
• Flash PMIs (Dec.) and Hourly Labour Costs (Q3)
• More policy easing still likely under Lagarde
• Economic activity still losing momentum
• Gloomy data ahead of Lagarde’s ECB debut
• German Industrial Production (Oct.)
• ECB to loosen policy before policy review is complete
• Greening the ECB, surveys still downbeat
• Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) & German GDP (Q3)
• Swiss deflation is here to stay
• Euro-zone GDP (second estimate), Employment (Q3)
• EC growth forecasts still too optimistic
• German Industrial Production (Sept.)
• Outlook remains bleak
• Euro-zone GDP (Q3), Unemp. (Sept.) & HICP (Oct.)
• How will the future of globalisation play out?
• How will the future of globalisation play out?
• Further thoughts (and charts) on the auto sector
• No fiscal boost in 2020, Brexit deal on a knife edge
• NOK to fall further before reversing course next year
• Easing cycles have further to run
• Euro-zone close to recession
• ECB account acknowledges divisions in the Council
• Slowing to a crawl
• German Industrial Production (August)
• Vehicles still driving the downturn in Germany
• Do policy splits on the ECB matter?
• Euro-zone economy to slow, forcing ECB to do more
• German Ifo Survey (Sep.)
• Wishful thinking about German fiscal policy
• Ups and downs in Swiss bonds echo Bitcoin frenzy
• Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2)
• Open-ended QE unlikely to reboot economy
• Services sector holding up well for now
• Bank to cut deposit rate but wait before starting QE2
• Has the market done the ECB’s job for it?
• Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.)
• Germany now more vulnerable to no-deal Brexit
• ECB preparing for action and perhaps a new target
• ECB account points to rate cuts and target change
• Italy’s latest political drama no game-changer
• SNB to shift through the gears
• German GDP (Q2), E-Z Industrial Production (June)
• Economic weakness to continue to weigh on equities
• German Industrial Production (June)
• Little chance of a big fiscal boost from Germany
• Euro-zone Retail Sales (June)
• Tiered ECB deposit rate would be a dovish signal
• Policymakers to push the boundaries of policy easing
• ECB to try QE again
• French growth spurt unlikely to last
• Switzerland calls the EC’s bluff
• ECB account confirms dovish intentions
• New Democracy, same old problems
• German Industrial Production (May)
• Draghi to fire the starting gun, Lagarde to run the race
• Final PMIs (Jun.)
• New ECB boss to be at least as dovish as Draghi
• Draghi to go out with a bang
• Tiered ECB deposit rate would be a dovish signal
• How will demographics affect the world economy?