Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1) and Consumer Prices (Apr.) 17th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC bets on health insurance bill, Nigeria inflation South African President Ramaphosa's approval of the controversial National Health Insurance bill this week was a clear effort to bolster the ANC’s support ahead of the election. But it also signals... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly DR votes, Lula intervenes, Argentine officials cheer Dominicans are set to re-elect President Luis Abinader on Sunday and there's widespread hope among investors that his second term will see further measures to improve the public finances. Elsewhere... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation slowly easing; activity softens The Biden administration announced an increase in tariffs on hi-tech & green-related goods imports from China this week, but they will have little impact on economic activity or inflation. Otherwise... 17th May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will inflation be below 2% for the first time in 3 years? Next Wednesday’s release of April’s CPI inflation data could prove momentous if we’re right in thinking that inflation fell from 3.2% in March to below the 2.0% target for the first time in three... 17th May 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone services inflation should keep falling There will be some upward pressure on services inflation in the coming months from tourism-related items and the pass-through of higher oil prices. But we think that this will be more than offset by... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government leaves RBA to go it alone Contrary to the claims made by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, measures in the 2024/25 Budget will do little to alleviate price pressures. That means the onus of bringing inflation under control will fall... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Inflation may soon be too low Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall from 3.2% in March to below 2.0% in April and below 1.0% later this year would leave inflation much lower than the Bank of England and the consensus forecasts... 16th May 2024 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that activity in Europe picked up at the start of this year, and... 15th May 2024 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly more modest 0.3% m/m increase in core CPI in April was even better than it looked, particularly given that we already know the PPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.6% y/y in April and, while we think that there may be a slight acceleration at the start of Q3, the bigger picture is that inflation in the... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) The small increase in the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the effect of changes in interest rates, from 2.2% in March to 2.3% in April, was broadly as expected (consensus 2... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chalmers’ fight against inflation goes nowhere Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to present the 2024/25 Budget as one that strikes a balance between providing support to an ailing economy and keeping pressure off inflation. In our view, that’s... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2024) 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: April CPI and the Bank of England’s path to rate cuts 1716366600 We think the Bank of England will decide to start cutting rates at its next meeting, but there’s a series of crucial data releases between now and that policy decision on 20th
Event Europe Drop-In: The start of the ECB rate cut cycle? 1717682400 We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing.