Commodities
Our commodities coverage provides detailed analysis, independent forecasts, and market outlooks for global commodities. We offer rapid responses to new data and developments, along with in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future market dynamics.
This service offers high-level coverage of all the most important commodities, with in-depth analysis and independent forecasts for Energy, Metals and Agriculturals, in addition to pan-commodity themes.
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All Commodities Coverage
Iran Conflict
See below for our latest commodities publications related to the conflict in Iran.
Oil
Our View: The path for oil prices over the rest of 2026 will be bumpy. But if the Strait of Hormuz remains open and oil flows pick up, prices could fall back sharply from 2027.
Natural Gas & LNG
Our View: The damage to LNG infrastructure in Qatar will have a long-lasting impact on natural gas prices, keeping them higher than they otherwise would be.
Gold & Silver
Our View: Precious metals prices have risen beyond the levels that we think would be justified by the fundamentals. Accordingly, we forecast prices to fall across the board this year.
Aluminium & Copper
Our View: Tight supply conditions will support aluminium prices over the coming years, but a surplus in the copper market will bear down on prices.
Steel & Iron Ore
Our View: A fall in iron ore prices and weaker demand will ease some of the upward pressure on global steel prices.
Agriculturals
Our View: The legacy of the Iran war, combined with the ongoing strong El Niño, will see agricultural prices rise through 2026-28, as disruptions to energy flows and fertiliser supply feed through into higher production costs.
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
Our View: There is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage across the value chain. However, while this may be an issue for politicians and some industries, the threat to inflation appears to be limited.
Featured Economists
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David Oxley
Chief Climate and Commodities Economist
David Oxley joined Capital Economics in 2009 and is Chief Climate and Commodities Economist. Previously, he was in charge of our Swiss & Nordic coverage as well as contributing more generally to the Europe Economics service. David has extensive international experience as a macroeconomist in both the private and public sectors. He has lived and worked in both New Zealand and Switzerland. David has degrees in Economics from University College London and Queen Mary, University of London.
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Kieran Tompkins
Senior Climate and Commodities Economist
Kieran is a Senior Climate and Commodities Economist and has been with Capital Economics since 2020. He has worked across our Global, UK, and Markets teams and currently sits on our Climate and Commodities desk, primarily contributing to our Energy and Metals coverage. Kieran’s work has been featured in leading media outlets including the BBC, Bloomberg and the Financial Times. He holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Exeter, and an MSc in Economics from City, University of London.
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Hamad Hussain
Climate and Commodities Economist
Hamad is a Climate and Commodities Economist and has been with Capital Economics since 2023. His work focuses on analysing the macro forces driving commodity prices and the key themes at the heart of the green transition. Hamad’s views are regularly quoted by international media outlets such as Bloomberg, the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Surrey.